How is VPB stock being revalued?

In Q2/2026, VPB recorded positive net profit growth driven by credit expansion and gains from core business operations. Total operating income in Q2/2026 surged 42% year-on-year to reach VND 23,484 billion. Net interest income (NII) jumped 33% year-on-year to VND 17,974 billion, reaching an all-time high in the bank's operating history. Non-interest income (Non-II) continued to be a highlight with an 80% surge, led by bad debt recoveries of VND 2,262 billion (up 80% year-on-year) and a breakthrough in fee income (up 169%), particularly in the insurance segment OPES and VPBankS, demonstrating synergies within the parent bank's ecosystem.

In addition, gains from securities trading grew by 66% to reach VND 605 billion. The bank's operating expenses increased slightly in Q2/2026 to VND 4,614 billion, primarily due to staff salaries.

During Q2/2026, VPB set aside VND 7,910 billion in credit risk provision expenses. Key financial ratios improved to their highest levels in two years, with ROA and ROE reaching 2.32% and 17.1%, respectively.

In summary, VPB recorded VND 8,385 billion in net profit for Q2/2026, a sharp increase of 72% year-on-year, driven mainly by net interest income and service activity revenue. On a cumulative basis through Q2/2026, VPB has completed 44% of its full-year profit target.

According to NHSV Securities, a notable point in the bank's Q2/2026 performance was the acceleration of credit growth, primarily driven by corporate clients alongside faster credit growth in the SME sector.

NHSV's report shows that VPB recorded total outstanding credit of VND 1,164,912 billion, bringing year-to-date credit growth to 22%, led by lending to SMEs, construction, and real estate. This represents a very high credit growth rate for VPB, significantly outperforming the broader banking sector. The key drivers behind this above-industry growth include the compulsory transfer of GPBank, which expanded VPB's asset scale and loan balance, as well as the granting of a higher credit quota (room).

Regarding deposits, VPB achieved a 22% growth rate, reflecting management's fundraising capabilities amidst high deposit interest rates and significant liquidity pressure. The proportion of retail loans dropped to a record low. Looking at the loan structure, retail lending has been on a downward trend since 2022.

After four consecutive years of expanding corporate lending, the proportion of retail loans has decreased to nearly 37.5% of total outstanding loans. This is attributed to recent difficulties faced by small household businesses, sharply declining consumer purchasing power, and their inability to compete with larger enterprises.

Given VPB's strong business momentum, NHSV forecasts full-year 2026 net profit to reach nearly VND 33,600 billion, an increase of almost 40%. Within this, VPB's credit growth in 2026 is projected to maintain double-digit expansion at around 36%.

This forecast is backed by strong credit growth momentum and the backdrop of the Government and the State Bank of Vietnam aiming for GDP growth above 10% through large-scale real estate and public investment projects, such as Long Thanh International Airport and the Can Gio reclamation mega-urban project. Regarding VPB's Net Interest Margin (NIM), NHSV believes NIM across the banking system in general, and for VPB in particular, will not improve immediately but will recover by the end of the year.

Based on comparative P/B valuation and residual income methods, combined with 2026 operational forecasts and growth outlook, NHSV sets a 12-month target price for VPB stock at VND 34,000/share, roughly 38% higher than its closing price on July 23, 2026 (VND 25,000/share).

Sharing NHSV's view, Beta Securities suggests that with quarterly provisioning costs near VND 8,000 billion—driven primarily by loan expansion—VPB's non-performing loan (NPL) coverage ratio remains stable. Based on first-half financial results, the bank has accomplished 45.7% of its pre-tax profit target.

For the full year 2026, Beta projects VPB's pre-tax profit to grow by 36.9% year-on-year. Despite a high interest rate environment, given strong earnings growth outlook near 35% annually, VPB's P/E target is expected to reach 7x, aligned with historical medians of peer banks. Accordingly, Beta sets a 1-year target price for VPB stock at VND 35,000/share.

At the end of the trading session on August 5, VPB stock was trading around the VND 25,500/share range.