How Vietnam Is rewriting the FDI playbook

The birds came

Today, the foreign-invested sector accounts for around three-quarters of Vietnam’s export value. In the first half of 2026 alone, newly registered FDI reached approximately US$17.39 billion, an increase of almost 87.2% compared with the same period a year earlier. FDI has been central to Vietnam’s remarkable economic transformation, creating jobs, expanding exports and raising living standards.

Yet Vietnam’s leadership also recognizes that the original FDI-for-export model has limits. The next stage of development requires more than attracting investment, it requires capturing greater value from it.

That ambition is clearly reflected in Politburo Resolution 10-NQ/TW, issued on 8 June 2026. The Resolution sets out a new vision for FDI in the era of what many describe as Đổi Mới 2.0.

If the first chapter was about attracting birds, the next chapter is about encouraging them to build their nests.

From Capital to Capability

HSBC sees Resolution 10 as a significant evolution in Vietnam’s investment strategy. The objective is no longer simply to attract capital, but to attract capability.

Success will increasingly be measured by whether foreign investment brings technology, develops local talent, establishes research and development capability, and integrates Vietnamese enterprises more deeply into global value chains.

The Resolution sets out ambitious but measurable objectives. Between 2025 and 2030, Vietnam aims to attract US$200–300 billion in newly registered FDI while disbursing US$150–200 billion, with approximately three-quarters of investment originating from developed economies. It also seeks to integrate 10,000 Vietnamese enterprises into FDI supply chains and attract at least three of the world’s leading technology companies to establish regional headquarters or R&D centres in Vietnam.

Why the timing matters

The timing could hardly be more important.

Around the world, traditional financial incentives are becoming less effective as countries compete for increasingly sophisticated investment. Vietnam cannot and should not expect to compete indefinitely on traditional competitive advantages especially labour costs alone.

Today’s strategic investors place growing importance on institutional quality, regulatory predictability, workforce capability and the speed with which governments can implement reform. Productivity, automation and innovation increasingly matter more than hourly wage rates.

In many respects, Resolution 10 represents a shift from incentives to institutions.

That shift is especially relevant at a time of geopolitical uncertainty, evolving global trade patterns and the rapid acceleration of artificial intelligence. Companies restructuring global supply chains are seeking resilient, predictable and innovation-driven investment destinations. Strong institutions have become one of the most valuable competitive advantages a country can offer.

Turning Ambition into Execution

For a banker, execution is where optimism meets reality.

Vietnam still faces important challenges. Improving the ease of doing business remains critical. Today, only a relatively small proportion of domestic private enterprises participate meaningfully in global supply chains. Expanding R&D activities requires a much larger pool of highly skilled engineers, technicians and researchers. At the same time, neighboring economies are pursuing many of the same strategic investors.

The opportunity is significant, but it will not remain open indefinitely.

Encouragingly, Resolution 10 directly addresses these challenges. It places institutional reform ahead of incentives, promotes performance-based support that rewards actual R&D activity and technology transfer rather than simply registered capital, and emphasizes supplier capability development through training, quality systems and management improvement. These are precisely the capabilities that enable Vietnamese companies to meet the demanding standards of multinational corporations and become long-term participants in global value chains.