Opening up a long-term stock investment cycle for the final months

Looking back at the first half of 2026, the VN-Index fluctuated within a wide range of 1,600 to 1,900 points, witnessing deep divergence.

Market Valuation Approaching Trough Levels

Statistics from Agribank Securities (Agriseco) indicate that the market's main index was heavily influenced by large-cap stocks, most notably the Vingroup group (contributing 80.6 points). Notably, excluding the impact of Vingroup, the rest of the market dragged the index down by 134.5 points, equivalent to a performance drop of 7.5% compared to the beginning of the year. This heavy pressure also stemmed from a decisive net-selling trend by foreign investors, with net withdrawals exceeding 86,000 billion VND in the first 7 months of the year, further driving down foreign ownership ratios in the market.

However, this deep corrective phase has brought the market's overall valuation down to highly attractive levels. Currently, the P/E of the VN-Index hovers around 13.3x, significantly lower than the 10-year average (15.x times).

Particularly, when excluding the Vingroup group, the market-wide P/E drops to around 10.x times—a valuation level approaching the trough of the 2022 crisis and the tense tariff period of April 2025. According to Agriseco, with over 60% of stocks trading below a P/E valuation of 10 times, a rare accumulation opportunity is truly opening up for long-term investors.

Investment Cycle with Expected Capital Inflow of $5–8 Billion

In the second half of 2026, Vietnam's economic growth is projected to accelerate strongly compared to the first half. According to Agriseco, although H1 GDP reached a respectable rate of 8.18%, this figure is still insufficient to meet the full-year target. To achieve the 10% GDP growth target for 2026 set by the Government, GDP in the second half of the year needs a breakthrough to reach 11.9%. The main growth drivers will come from manufacturing recovery, accelerated public investment disbursement, FDI attraction, and domestic consumption stimulus.

The strategy for the second half of the year opens up a long-term investment cycle with main catalysts. (Photo: Quoc Tuan)

Accordingly, experts believe that an expansionary fiscal policy will continue to serve as a solid backbone. Currently, fiscal space remains wide open as public debt is proposed to raise its ceiling to 50% of GDP and the budget deficit ratio to 5% of GDP for the 2026–2030 period. Total development investment expenditure in 2026 is also planned to increase by 32% compared to the 2025 execution, promising a substantial flow of capital injected into the economy.

Regarding inflation and macroeconomic balances, pressure is tending to rise but remains well under control. A flexible monetary policy coordinated with an expansionary fiscal policy will create significant momentum for double-digit GDP growth. This also forms the foundation for the Vietnamese stock market in the second half of the year.

Notably, according to Agriseco analysts, the stock market outlook for the second half of 2026 is brightened by two main catalysts:

First, the Vietnamese stock market marks a historical milestone as FTSE Russell officially confirmed the roadmap for upgrading it to a Secondary Emerging Market, effective from September 21, 2026.

This event, according to general estimates, is expected to trigger foreign capital inflows estimated at $5 billion to $8 billion, significantly improving market transparency and liquidity.

Up to the present, although foreign investors continue to net-sell continuously, the prospect of fund flows anticipating opportunities and making actual disbursements upon market upgrade remains very positive. During the candidate stock list update in May, FTSE Russell narrowed the number of qualifying tickers for global index suites from 32 down to 23. A series of stocks such as Sabeco, Eximbank, Dat Xanh, Phat Dat... were removed from the candidate list. The remaining 23 stocks on the list—including VIC, HPG, VHM, FPT, MSN, SSI, VNM, STB, VCB, VJC, VRE, VIX, NVL, VCI, SHB, GEX, VND, KBC, KDH, BID, DGC, BSR, and GEE—are still closely watched by many investors awaiting developments. Notably, many tickers on this list led their respective sectors in earnings growth during the first 6 months of the year and maintained substantial market capitalization after the market correction phase.

According to the plan, the final list will be announced prior to the FTSE GEIS (FTSE Global Equity Index Series) semi-annual review in September 2026. The changes from the semi-annual review are expected to be announced starting August 21, 2026—a milestone drawing keen investor attention later this month.

Second, according to Agriseco's analysis, market-wide earnings—despite decelerating relative to the exceptionally high baseline of 2025—are still projected to grow at a favorable rate of 18% in 2026 and continue to maintain accelerating momentum into 2027.

Based on the 18% earnings growth expectation and a reasonable forward P/E valuation of approximately 11.3x, the VN-Index is forecast to return to an upward cycle starting mid-Q3 2026, targeting 1,752 points. Despite risks regarding inflation and sustained high interest rates, the cheap valuation foundation combined with decisive macroeconomic stimulus policies from the Government will serve as the core driver bringing the stock market into a promising new long-term investment cycle.