Outlook for industrial property sector’s 3Q26 earnings

Positive FDI inflows in 8M26

According to the Ministry of Finance, the processing and manufacturing sector was the key recipient of FDI inflows. In 8M26, disbursed FDI reached USD 14.2bn (13% yoy), while newly registered FDI amounted to USD 12.2bn (86% yoy). FDI enterprises maintained strong production, with export and import values growing by 30% and 45% yoy, respectively. This indicates that FDI inflows into Vietnam remained positive despite geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and ongoing trade tensions.

Foreign investors have shifted from the “wait-and-see” strategy towards the “risk diversification” strategy, with Vietnam emerging as an attractive destination thanks to its political stability and upgraded infrastructure capable of accommodating next-generation investment flows.

The growing focus on technology, semiconductors, AI, and particularly data centre projects represents a new direction for Vietnam's investment attraction strategy. Industrial park (IP) developers adopting green and eco-IP models are also gaining increasing appeal.

3Q26 NP shows divergence

BCM, KBC and IDC are transitioning from traditional IPs towards green and eco-IPs. As a result, these companies have continued to attract tenants from the high-tech sector. BCM and VSIP are expanding their land bank and taking the lead in attracting green and sustainable projects in HCMC, Hue, and, most recently, a 628-ha high-tech park in Ninh Binh. KBC has signed MOUs covering nearly 170 ha with large enterprises such as LG and Luxshare, while promoting cooperation in the development of large-scale data centers. IDC continues to attract small- and medium-sized projects in manufacturing, pharmaceuticals and data centers. Accordingly, MBS expects these companies’ presales to increase significantly in the coming period.

3Q26 NP is expected to diverge across companies, depending on land handover progress and other business activities. MBS forecasts strong NP growth for BCM, KBC and VGC, albeit from a low base. BCM has several transfer contracts yet to be recognised, while KBC has a 170-ha backlog undergoing the necessary procedures for handover to tenants. VGC's earnings growth is expected to be driven by building materials and sanitary ware.

In contrast, MBS forecasts IDC's earnings to decline from the high base. For rubber- and IP-related companies, we expect GVR and PHRs’ profit to grow strongly thanks to high rubber prices and land compensation. It forecasts aggregate NP of the companies under our coverage to grow by 52% yoy.

What stocks to consider?

For BCM, following the commencement of sales at the Hoa Loi Resettlement Area project, MBS expects BCM’s NP to grow strongly in 2H26. In 3Q26, it forecasts BCM to recognise earnings from 400 units at the project. Profit from associates and joint ventures is expected to increase by 15% yoy, mainly driven by VSIP, IJC, and Becamex Binh Phuoc.

As for VGC, MBS estimates its NP to increase from the low base. The IP segment, although not as strong as in the second quarter, is expected to continue its recovery, with land handovers reaching 25–30 ha, compared with only 20 ha in the same period last year. The building materials segment is expected to maintain positive performance, supported by narrowing losses in the glass segment and strong growth in the sanitary ware segment.

As far as KBC is concerned, supported by a sizable backlog of around 170 ha as of end of 2Q26, IP land handovers are expected to improve in 2H26. In 3Q26, MBS expects KBC to hand over 20 ha at Hung Yen IC and Loc Giang IP. The real estate segment's contribution will come from the Nenh and Trang Due social housing projects. Debt repayment pressure is increasing as its debts continue to rise amid high interest rates, while its key projects such as Trang Cat and Trump Complex have yet to generate cash flow.

Concerning IDC, for the IP segment, MBS expects IP land handovers to reach 20 ha, from Huu Thanh IP and Phu My II ext IP. In the energy segment, it forecasts stable hydropower output, while electricity distribution output is expected to grow by 10% yoy. Toll revenue is expected to remain stable compared with the previous quarter. 3Q26 NP is expected to decline from the high base, mainly due to lower land handover.