Proactively Managing Foreign Exchange Risk to Safeguard Business Profitability

Mr. Jung Hyo Chang, Director of the Global Trading Center at Shinhan Bank Vietnam

How do you assess Vietnam's economic outlook and the foreign exchange market in the second half of 2026? What factors are likely to have the greatest impact on the VND/USD exchange rate?

During the first half of the year, Vietnam's economy recorded a number of encouraging developments, with GDP expanding by 8.18%, higher than the same period last year. Economic growth was supported by the broad-based recovery of the manufacturing sector, resilient domestic consumption, continued public investment, and sustained inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI). In addition, credit growth reached 7.73% compared with the end of 2025, with most new lending continuing to be directed toward production, business activities, and export-oriented sectors. This has provided a solid foundation for economic growth in the remaining months of the year. Overall, Vietnam's growth fundamentals remain relatively strong. However, given the economy's high degree of openness, the outlook for the second half of the year will be significantly influenced by external factors, particularly developments in global financial markets and international trade.

Regarding the key drivers of the USD/VND exchange rate, I believe there are four major factors that will shape its movements in the coming months.

• First, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will remain the most important external factor. The Fed's interest rate path will continue to influence the strength of the U.S. dollar and, consequently, have a direct impact on the USD/VND exchange rate.

• Second, the domestic balance of foreign currency supply and demand. Although export earnings and FDI inflows remain key sources of foreign currency supply, import costs—particularly energy and logistics expenses—have been rising amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. As a result, demand for foreign currency from importers is likely to remain elevated during the second half of the year.

• Third, developments in global trade and tariff policies. Changes in U.S. trade policy, together with the ongoing realignment of global supply chains, will have a direct impact on Vietnam's export performance and foreign currency inflows. These are factors that warrant close monitoring in the months ahead.

• Finally, the exchange rate management policy of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). In my view, the SBV has continued to adopt a highly flexible policy approach, balancing the objectives of supporting economic growth and maintaining macroeconomic stability. Going forward, the SBV is likely to allow the exchange rate to move more in line with market fundamentals rather than intervening excessively, thereby preserving foreign exchange reserves and minimizing the risk of being designated as a "currency manipulator."

Overall, I expect the USD/VND exchange rate to remain under moderate depreciation pressure in the second half of 2026, although sharp or disruptive fluctuations are unlikely. The SBV is expected to maintain its objective of limiting the annual depreciation of the Vietnamese dong to around 3%.

In response to the volatility in the foreign exchange market, what solutions is Shinhan Bank Vietnam implementing to help businesses manage exchange rate risks and optimize cash flow?

Amid the ongoing volatility in the foreign exchange market, Shinhan Bank Vietnam's approach goes beyond simply providing foreign exchange products. We aim to become a trusted advisory partner, supporting businesses in managing exchange rate risks and optimizing cash flow. Our goal is to help clients take a more proactive approach to financial planning, rather than reacting only after market fluctuations occur.

For businesses engaged in import and export activities or those with foreign currency cash flows, we carefully assess each client's payment needs, cash flow structure, and risk exposure in order to recommend the most appropriate solutions. Depending on their specific circumstances, clients may utilize spot transactions or hedging instruments such as forward contracts and foreign exchange swaps to better manage exchange rate risk and achieve greater stability in their cash flows.

In addition, Shinhan Bank Vietnam regularly provides customers with updates on macroeconomic developments, exchange rate trends, and key market drivers that may affect their business operations. We believe that, alongside financial solutions, timely market insights and professional advisory services enable businesses to make more informed decisions and strengthen their financial resilience in an increasingly dynamic business environment.

What recommendations does Shinhan Bank Vietnam have for businesses to proactively respond to exchange rate fluctuations and the evolving global financial environment in the coming period?

In my view, businesses engaged in import-export activities or those with foreign currency cash flows should avoid relying solely on a favorable exchange rate scenario. Instead, they should adopt a more proactive and systematic approach to foreign exchange risk management.

• First, companies should regularly assess their net foreign currency exposure for each payment cycle rather than evaluating their overall position only on an annual basis. This enables more timely and effective risk management.

• Second, businesses should make appropriate use of hedging instruments, such as forward contracts, foreign exchange swaps, or phased exchange rate locking strategies, particularly for large payment obligations or import contracts with thin profit margins. These transactions can be executed in stages over time, rather than concentrated at a single point, helping to reduce the risk of entering the market at an unfavorable exchange rate.

• Third, companies should actively align foreign currency inflows and outflows in the same currency wherever possible or adjust contractual terms—such as pricing mechanisms and settlement currencies—to minimize foreign currency cash flow mismatches.

• Fourth, businesses should consider incorporating price adjustment clauses or exchange rate adjustment mechanisms into commercial contracts, especially those with longer tenors. Such provisions can help mitigate the financial impact of significant exchange rate movements over the life of the contract.

Ultimately, in an increasingly volatile global environment, I believe that businesses with a well-prepared risk management strategy will be in a much stronger position than those that react only after risks have already materialized.

In your assessment, which business sectors will be exposed to the greatest risks in the second half of the year?

In my view, there are two primary groups of enterprises that will be most distinctly impacted by fluctuations in the international market and global trade during the latter half of the year.First, this applies to enterprises heavily dependent on imported raw materials, such as energy, steel, and manufacturing. This segment faces severe pressure from exchange rate volatility and rising input costs, as global commodity prices remain elevated and the USD maintains its strength. Due to a substantial demand for foreign currency to settle import payments, these businesses are highly vulnerable to currency risks. Without appropriate hedging measures, production costs will escalate, profit margins will narrow, and potential foreign exchange losses may materialize.Second, the export-oriented sector—particularly in industries such as textiles and garments, electronic components, and wooden furniture—which relies significantly on the US market. This group faces risks stemming from trade barriers and the potential for increased tariffs. Furthermore, the sluggish recovery of global consumer demand may lead to a decline in orders. Simultaneously, downward pricing pressure from foreign importers could also adversely impact the revenue and operational efficiency of these enterprises.