Riding the public investment stock wave

However, investors need to carefully evaluate and screen stocks benefiting from public investment to minimize risks when allocating capital to this group.

On the stock market, public investment stocks have shown signs of recovery and are expected to accelerate even more towards the end of this year.

Economic Growth Driver

According to Agriseco, in the 2026–2030 period, total public investment capital is projected to reach approximately 8.22 quadrillion VND, 2.7 times higher than the 2021–2025 period and marking the highest level to date. In 2026 alone, the planned public investment capital is around 995 trillion VND, an increase of over 30%. Including additional capital, total public investment is equivalent to 7.85% of the estimated nominal GDP for 2025.

According to the Ministry of Finance, as of July 2, 2026, the country has disbursed 360,948.7 billion VND, reaching 35.8% of the target set by the Prime Minister. Excluding local budget savings earmarked for the Lao Cai – Hanoi – Hai Phong railway line project, the disbursement rate reached approximately 37%. Although progress has improved, many ministries and localities still have disbursement rates below the national average, with 7 ministries and central agencies recording disbursement rates below 5%. Nevertheless, the pace of public investment disbursement has shown positive signs, serving as a catalyst for the double-digit economic growth target set by the National Assembly and Government for 2026.

"A 1% increase in public investment disbursement can help boost GDP by approximately 0.058 percentage points. The large-scale public investment package, alongside decisive implementation policies and timeline execution, forms a crucial foundation to achieve the 10% GDP growth target in 2026. Furthermore, accelerating public investment disbursement will have a spillover effect on various sectors across the economy," Agriseco emphasized.

Which Sectors Will Benefit?

In recent years, the National Assembly and Government have continuously perfected the legal framework for public investment, promoting decentralization and resolving procedural bottlenecks. Consequently, preparation times for public investment have been shortened so that capital in this area can effectively flow into businesses and the broader economy.

Currently, key public investment projects targeted for completion include key national initiatives such as Ring Road 3 and 4 in Ho Chi Minh City; Ring Road 4 in Hanoi; the North–South High-Speed Railway; the Lao Cai – Hanoi – Hai Phong Railway; bridge projects including Tu Lien, Tran Hung Dao, and Ngoc Hoi; airport projects like Long Thanh and Gia Binh; power energy projects such as the Ninh Thuan Nuclear Power Plant; and major urban developments like Can Gio and Olympic...

On the stock market, public investment stocks have experienced recovery rallies. However, according to Agriseco, this sector has potential to accelerate much faster by the end of the year. Public investment is considered a primary driver of economic growth amid forecasts of slowing growth in consumer and export sectors due to global economic fluctuations. Accelerated public investment disbursement is expected to create spillover effects across multiple industries, including construction materials, infrastructure, power construction, real estate, and logistics...

Which Stock Groups to Consider?

Based on the above analysis, Agriseco recommends that investors consider holding construction material stocks, which benefit directly immediately after land clearance, as projects transition into construction and final completion stages. Leading stocks in this segment include CTD, VCG, FCN, HHV, etc.

For the cement and construction stone sectors, because transportation costs account for a large portion of product prices, companies located near project sites with major market shares will hold a distinct competitive edge. Construction stone companies, in particular, are expected to grow well due to high stone demand driven by leveling-soil shortages at major projects such as the North-South Expressway, Long Thanh Airport, and railways. Therefore, leading enterprises with large reserves located near major projects stand to benefit. Investors may consider stocks such as HT1, KSB, VLD, etc.

Regarding the steel sector, manufacturers and suppliers providing steel for infrastructure projects will benefit from rising consumption demand. According to BSC, while raw material costs tend to rise, steel prices and consumption volumes are recovering faster thanks to domestic construction steel demand from major public investment projects and a recovering real estate market. This will help maintain high profit margins for the steel sector. Investors can look into stocks such as HPG, NKG, HSG, etc.

For the power infrastructure construction group (substations, transmission lines), BSC anticipates direct benefits as the Government prioritizes energy security to create new momentum for economic growth, particularly attracting FDI and enhancing national standing. Additionally, the draft Law amending and supplementing several articles of the Electricity Law, Power Development Plan VIII, the restart of the Ninh Thuan Nuclear Power Plant, and the development of renewable energy, LNG gas power, and offshore wind power will also support the power infrastructure construction sector. Investors may consider stocks such as POW, NT2, GEL, etc.