GDP growth forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2022

Tourism reopening is considered one of the drivers for Vietnam's GDP growth.

According to Mr. Le Trung Hieu, Director of the Department of National Accounts System (General Statistics Office), the GDP growth objective of 6-6.5 percent in 2022 is a major challenge, based on GDP growth in 1Q22.

As a result, the General Statistics Office is presenting two GDP growth predictions for the coming quarters.

In the worst-case scenario, assuming that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is still tense but will end soon in 1H22, the COVID-19 epidemic continues to develop complicatedly with a new strain but is largely under control, Vietnam universalizes the third dose vaccine and maintains current economic activities, GDP growth in 2Q22 will be around 5.5 percent (0.1 percent higher than Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP); GDP growth in 3Q22 will be 7.5 percent (unchanged according to Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP); GDP growth in 4Q22 will be 6.1% (0.1% lower than Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP). As a result, GDP growth is expected to be 6% for the entire year.

In the high case scenario, assuming the Russia-Ukraine conflict calms down in April, the COVID-19 epidemic is under control, the new strain has a milder effect, Vietnam completes widespread vaccination of the 3rd dose vaccine, and economic activities expand, 2Q22 GDP growth is estimated at 6.1 percent (0.2 percent higher than Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP); 3Q22 and 4Q22 GDP growth remained unchanged according to Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP; and 2022 GDP growth at 6.5 percent as in the initial scenario.

Due to the steady recovery in international demand, Mr. Le Trung Hieu believes that strong industries such as agriculture, industry, notably the processing and manufacturing industries, will continue to drive GDP growth in the coming months. Food and beverage wholesale and retail businesses, as well as entertainment services industries have gradually risen, particularly since Vietnam's strategy of reopening tourism.

According to Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong, General Director of the General Statistics Office, strong industries such as agriculture and industry, particularly the processing industry, would drive GDP growth in the coming months due to increased global demand. Because of the negative growth in the previous year and the policy of tourist reopening, the wholesale, retail, transportation, lodging, dining, entertainment, and entertainment industries will see rapid growth in the next few months. Domestic demand for production, investment, and consumption will be restored shortly as part of the socioeconomic recovery and development program.

As a result, starting in 2Q22, one of the top priorities will be to stabilize commodity prices and control markets, as well as promote domestic production to move toward self-sufficiency in supply, domestic raw materials, fuel, and materials, limit  ing the impact of global price increases on the Vietnamese market.

This will aid GDP growth in 2Q22 and 3Q22 in maintaining the prior high rate. Furthermore, the implementation of support packages for socioeconomic development under Resolution No. 11/NQ-CP will help investment and domestic consumption recover quickly, while worker salaries improve, resulting in increased production.