Gold prices will rocket over $2,000 on Israel-Hamas war?

The October 17 explosion at the al-Ahli hospital in Gaza City

>> Which currencies stand to gain from geopolitical conflict?

The worldwide gold price soared to $1,997 after beginning the week at $1,926. Gold futures for December were last trading at $2,008.90 per ounce, up 1.4% on the day.

SJC gold prices fell from VND 71.6 million to VND 70 million per teal before increasing to VND 71,1 million.

As Israel's conflict with Hamas escalates, global uncertainty supports gold's safe-haven attraction, as the precious metal defies increasing bond yields.

Many analysts expected the war to be a small struggle between Israel and Hamas when Hamas started its terrible onslaught on Israel on October 7.

However, the logical reasons in favor of confinement were much less obvious following the October 17 explosion at the al-Ahli hospital in Gaza City, where hundreds of displaced Palestinians were finding refuge. Despite different explanations for the explosion and Washington's conclusion that Israel was not to blame, governments around the region, including Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, blamed the incident firmly on an Israeli attack. Protests erupted in cities around the Middle East.

However, even before the hospital catastrophe, the volume of Hamas' strikes and the reality on the ground as the conflict in Gaza progressed were altering major participants' strategic considerations. These trends are increasing the likelihood of regional escalation, with the risk of conflict between Iran and Israel being particularly severe.

Iran's foreign minister warned that if Israel's assault in Gaza continues, "it is highly probable that many other fronts will be opened," adding that if Israel "decides to enter Gaza, the resistance leaders will turn it into a graveyard of the occupation soldiers." Such warnings have been echoed by Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who stated that there should be "no expectation" that Iran will restrain radicals if Israel's airstrikes on Gaza continue.

According to some Iran specialists, these remarks are political posturing or an indication that Iran is distancing itself from the conduct of its non-state partners, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Shiite terrorist organizations in Iraq. However, open Israeli-Iranian conflicts cannot be ruled out, especially given Iranian authorities' apparent backing for militia assaults, which limit s the scope for denial.

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So far, the Biden administration appears to comprehend the risks and has emphasized the containment of the Israel-Hamas conflict in its recent diplomatic blitz. The administration appears to be reaching out to Iran through backchannels with the assistance of regional partners. Such communication is essential in order to avoid miscalculation and unwelcome military escalation.

Gold prices will rocket over $2,000 on Israel-Hamas war?

The dilemma, according to Ms. Dalia Dassa Kaye, a Senior Fellow at the UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations, is that this conflict will only be contained if all sides are interested in avoiding a regional war. That circumstance appears to be holding for the time being. However, there is no certainty that this will continue in the future. The reality on the ground is changeable, and changes in Israel's, Iran's, or both nations' strategic calculus may cause their leaders to conclude that averting wider confrontation constitutes a larger threat to their existence than fighting one other in combat.

Even in the best-case scenario, in which the Israel-Hamas conflict does not grow into a major regional crisis, many analysts expect gold to reach $2,500 per ounce after breaking above $2,100.

However, not all analysts believe gold's rally is sustainable. According to Mr. Colin, senior FX analyst, purchasing gold as a geopolitical safe haven has never proved viable. As a result, gold transactions will occur if the Israel-Hamas conflict calms down.

While markets will continue to focus on geopolitical issues next week, a full economic calendar may cause some volatility. Their attention will be drawn to the first print of the United States' third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) later this week. Furthermore, the week will conclude with important inflation statistics, which may have an influence on gold prices.