How will the stock market react to the threat of inflation?

Inflation would remain under control in 2022, so the stock market trend would be a short-term correction rather than a slump, as it had been in 2008 and 2011.

We find no apparent association between inflation and stock market return under normal conditions, when inflation is kept below 4% by the government (represented by the VNIndex). We did, however, detect a link between inflation and market return when inflation was high in 2008 and 2010–2011. As a result, when inflation rises rapidly and tends to peak, stock market returns are frequently negative, reaching bottom.

For example, when inflation reached 23 percent in 2008, the VN-Index returns decreased by 65 percent (perhaps because to the global financial crisis). Furthermore, when inflation peaked in 2011, the index fell by 27%, showing that the stock market is generally bearish in high-inflation years.

In 2011, inflation began with an increase in the minimum wage from January 1, 2011, which increased aggregate demand. The State Bank of Vietnam then depreciated the Vietnamese dong by 9.3 percent against the US dollar in February to combat the deficit and low foreign exchange reserves. The total input cost of Vietnam's economy is affected by an increase in the exchange rate (Vietnam mainly imports raw materials for production during this period). Furthermore, world commodity prices rose substantially during this time, particularly oil prices, which peaked at more than $100 per barrel. These factors combined to cause a major rise in inflation, generating an economic shock and leading the stock market to correct during this time.

Kis Vietnam, on the other hand, predicted that the situation in 2022 will be considerably different. First, global commodity prices are rising, with Brent crude oil hitting a new high of USD140 per barrel. This trend puts major upward pressure on global inflation. In Vietnam, however, this is not the case. In contrast to 2011, when Vietnam had to import gasoline to meet domestic demand, by 2022, the country will have local oil refineries to meet a portion of market demand. Furthermore, while fuel prices have an impact on transportation costs and commodity prices in Vietnam, aggregate demand has yet to rebound owing to the COVID-19 outbreak. As a result, inflationary pressures would be kept to a minimum.

Second, unlike in the period 2010-2011, Vietnam is currently in a trade surplus, so the pressure on the exchange rate is not tremendous. Besides, foreign reserves are also at a high level of nearly USD 110 billion, ten times higher than in 2010 and nearly four times higher than in 2015. This development keeps the exchange rate stable and does not create additional economic risks.

"In the short term, the pressure from global commodity prices on local inflation will continue. However, inflation would remain under control, and the market trend would be a short-term correction rather than a slump, as it had been in 2008 and 2011 ", according to Kis Vietnam.

However, the high oil price will raise the cost of transportation and living expenses for Vietnamese households, putting a damper on various businesses. First, rising commodity costs, such as those for iron, steel, and petroleum products, will have a direct impact on businesses that import goods and materials from other countries. This was known as the "cost-push" issue.

Second, if inflation is high, the SBV will change macroeconomic measures to keep inflation under control, which may include a rate hike. This will have a broad impact on the current low borrowing rates, hurting all stock market enterprises. Companies with substantial leverage, such as the real estate business, will be particularly hit.

The Oil and Gas (O&G) and Material sectors, on the other hand, are two industries that could benefit from increased commodity prices. Bullish oil prices will encourage the implementation of oil and gas projects in Vietnam, meaning an increase in the workload of industry enterprises. Furthermore, because the cost of refinishing is rising, raw material producers will be able to raise their selling prices, resulting in huge profit.