by Thai Binh/ Minh Phuong, Customsnews 25/10/2021, 02:20

Import and export recovery expected to accelerate in the 4th Quarter

With the adjustment of the anti-pandemic stance to "safe adaptation, flexibility and effective control of the Covid-19 pandemic" (according to Resolution 128/NQ-CP issued by the Government), it is expected that in the fourth quarter, imports and exports will regain growth momentum to set a new record with a turnover of more than US$600 billion this year.

Import-export activities showed bright signs of bouncing back in September. Photo: T.Binh

Import-export activities showed bright signs of bouncing back in September. Photo: T.Binh

Optimistic signs in September

According to latest information released by the General Department of Customs, in September, the total import-export turnover of the country reached more than US$53 billion. Specifically, exports reached more than US$27 billion, a slight decrease of 0.7% compared to August 2021; imports reached US$26.67 billion, down 2.5%. Although it is still decreasing compared to the previous month, the rate of decline has been improved. In August, exports decreased by 2.3% compared to July 2021, while imports decreased by 6.1%.

Along with controlling the decline in turnover in general, the export activities in September had more remarkable bright spots. Typically, the two largest export commodity groups including phones and computers still maintained good growth momentum. In which, phones reached $5.7 billion, up 2.5% compared to August; computers, electronic products and components reached $4.77 billion, up 12.5%.

In addition, key agricultural export groups of Vietnam are also witnessing a remarkable recovery in recent months, such as vegetables, seafood, cashew nuts, and rice.

The prosperity of large commodity groups along with the initial recovery of the economic locomotive of Ho Chi Minh City in September has recorded remarkable achievements for the country export activities. In September, this locality's exports reached $3.363 billion, up 33% compared to the previous August, equivalent to an increase in turnover of more than $800 million.

Thanks to initial success in pandemic control in Ho Chi Minh City and easing prevention and control measures from the beginning of October, import and export activities in this economic center will enjoy positive growth in the year-end months. Because not only many export processing zones and industrial parks but the largest seaport in and Tan Son Nhat international airport are concentrated here.

The city’s timely solutions have created favorable conditions for businesses in the southern provinces and cities to be more open to import supplies, raw materials, machinery and equipment for production, as well as export goods.

US$600 billion is feasible

With the results in September, for the whole nine months, the total import-export turnover of the country reached US$484 billion, equivalent to the average figure of nearly US$54 billion/month. Thus, to reach US$600 billion of import and export this year, the total import-export turnover only needs to reach US$116 billion in the fourth quarter, equivalent to nearly US$39 billion per month. This is completely possible if looking at the results in the past nine months, even at the most complicated time of the pandemic, the country’s export turnover has never been less than US$40 billion per month.

Another base for the recovery of import and export is the development of foreign direct investment (FDI) enterprises. As a matter of fact, the recently announced data on import and export of the General Department of Customs has clearly showed that our country's import and export activities today, especially exports, still rely heavily on the contribution of FDI enterprises.

Particularly, the export of FDI enterprises in the past nine months reached US$176.6 billion, accounting for 73.4% of the total export turnover of the country. Meanwhile, the largest export sectors dominated by FDI enterprises such as phones and computers, electronic products and components, etc., are experiencing remarkable growth, which will be an important driving force for the import and export activities of the country.

Recently, on August 31, at the headquarters of LG Display Vietnam Hai Phong Co., Ltd (Trang Due Industrial Park, Hai Phong), leaders of Hai Phong Economic Zone Management Board awarded the adjusted investment certificate for LG Display Vietnam Hai Phong Co., Ltd. Accordingly, LG Display Vietnam Hai Phong Co., Ltd. increased its capital by US$1.4 billion, bringing the total investment capital in Hai Phong to US$4.65 billion, becoming the project with the largest investment capital in the port city.

With the additional investment capital, the company will increase the output of OLED screens from 9.6 to 10 million products/month to 13 to 14 million products/month. It is expected that export revenue will increase by about US$6.5 billion/year; contributing about US$25 million/year to the state budget, creating jobs for 10,000 workers. This shows that large FDI enterprises are still putting their trust in the Vietnamese market.

Of course, in order to recover production and export capacity soon, not only the self-effort of the business community is needed, but also the cooperation of ministries, branches and localities. In particular, localities need to soon remove extreme prevention and control measures. Instead, investors should be facilitated to travel easily to make it easy for production, business and circulation of goods.

By the end of September, there were six groups of export goods with a turnover of US$10 billion or more and all had good growth compared to the same period last year. Phones and components reached US$41 billion, up 11.5%; computers, electronic products and components reached US$36.56 billion, up 13.6%; machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts reached US$26.17 billion, up 44.1%; textile and garment reached US$23.4 billion, up 5.6%; footwear US$13.3 billion, up 9.7%; wood and wood products more than US$11 billion, up 30.6%.