Seafood exports are expected to recover in 2024

Processing shrimp for export at Ca Mau Seafood Joint Stock Company. Illustration photo: N.H

Export value increased nearly 70%

According to the Report of the Center for Digital Transformation and Agricultural Statistics (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development), the estimated export value of agricultural, forestry and fishery products in January 2024 reached USD 5.15 billion, an increase of 79.2% compared to the same period in 2023. In particular, the estimated seafood export value in January 2024 will reach USD 730 million, an increase of 60.8% over the same period in 2023.

According to experts, in general, Vietnam's seafood exports from the end of 2023 have shown signs of recovery and will likely increase again in 2024, especially in the second half of the year. In particular, exports of two main seafood products, shrimp and pangasius, will recover after a sharp decline in 2023. Forecasts of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) also show that in 2024, Vietnam's shrimp exports will increase by 10 - 15% compared to 2023, especially in the last 6 months of the year; when inflation pressure cools down, inventory at importers decreases, prices of shrimp increased again.

However, besides the advantages, there are still many difficulties for Vietnamese seafood. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development assesses that 2024 will continue to be a year of many unusual developments with seafood resources declining. The security and order situation at sea is complicated and unpredictable, countries in the region have increased control over exploitation activities at sea, and our fishermen's fishing grounds have shrunk significantly.

Faced with that situation, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development has reduced the seafood export target in 2024 to only USD 9.5 billion (in 2023 the target is 10 billion USD); Total output is 9.22 million tons, keeping aquaculture area of 1.3 million hectares.

Explaining the reason for adjusting the export target, Mr. Nhu Van Can, Deputy Director of the Department of Fisheries, said that 2024 is a year of many difficulties, especially the European Commission (EC) maintaining a warning ““yellow card" for Vietnam's exploited aquatic products. In addition, import demand has not shown signs of recovery, strong competition in markets and inventory levels of processing and exporting enterprises. For aquaculture, in addition to traceability from farming facilities to processing and export factories, it is necessary to ensure food safety, correct use and enhance microbial products to ensure quality.

Advantages with the Chinese market

As one of the main export products of Vietnamese seafood, the shrimp industry is also facing many difficulties. Accordingly, the global oversupply situation may continue until at least the first half of 2024 due to increase of world shrimp production with a forecast increase of 4.8% and reaching 5.9 million tons. .

Besides, there is increasingly fierce competition from major shrimp farming countries. Specifically, Ecuador and India are increasing their market share in the US, China, EU and Japan. These two countries also increased processed shrimp exports although the proportion was still modest. In addition, the shrimp industry also faces the fear of anti-subsidy taxes being imposed in the US when this country is conducting an anti-subsidy investigation on shrimp imported from 4 countries, including Vietnam.

Faced with that situation, many shrimp industry enterprises are implementing flexible solutions to promptly adapt and build scenarios for many situations. At the same time, many domestic shrimp exporters will focus on value-added products and monthly export value. The average shrimp selling price may remain stable or increase slightly over the same period in 2024 due to weak recovery in consumer demand and competition with leading shrimp exporting countries such as Ecuador, India or Indonesia (higher discount price).

Notably, tensions in the Red Sea are causing many difficulties in the process of transporting export goods and seafood products when shipping costs increase. Rising selling prices to consumers will greatly affect purchasing decisions. Tensions in the Red Sea also somewhat affect shrimp exports to the US and EU... But thanks to that, shrimp exports to the Chinese market will be able to recover slightly thanks to the advantage of close location and reduced logistics costs compared to competitors. In the opposite direction, China also needs shrimp supply from Vietnam when there is a decrease in supply from Ecuador, due to unstable security issues in this South American country and also due to difficulties in shipping and increased costs. … Therefore, China will have to compensate for supplies from Vietnam and other Asian countries.