Supply chain pains: A word on vaccination

Nearly 97% of Hanoi people (aged 18 years old or more) have been vaccinated with at least one dose.

Despite good progress, Vietnam still lags behind its regional peers in terms of vaccine procurement and roll-out. But Mr. Yun Liu, Economist of The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited also sees some reason for optimism, as Vietnam is expected to receive more vaccines in 4Q, hopefully paving the way for a sustained economic re-opening.

As such, the earlier Vietnam can contain the fourth COVID-19 wave, the better it can restore foreign investors’ confidence, and a key part in the equation is a fast vaccination roll-out. Compared to 1H21, Vietnam has made substantial vaccination progress in 3Q, with daily shots jumping as high as 8k per million at one point in mid-August. That said, it is still facing a lack of consistent vaccine shipments, thus making it lag behind regional peers, with only 27.95% of its population being vaccinated with at least one dose and about 6% of its fully vaccinated population until 17 September 2021. In which, nearly 97% of Hanoi people (aged 18 years old or more) have been vaccinated with at least one dose, paving the way for its gradual re-opening by the end of September.

Recently, the authorities have appeared to shift their COVID-19 strategy, with the Prime Minister’s recent emphasis on developing a recovery plan to “live with COVID-19”. This will largely depend on achieving high vaccination rates; thus the priority for policymakers is to secure diversified vaccine sources and accelerate vaccine roll-out. In particular, the roll-out of the second dose is crucial, as only 6% of Vietnam’s population has been fully vaccinated. 

Vietnam vaccination rate until 15 September 2021

Positively, Vietnam is expected to see a meaningful pick-up in vaccine commitments in 4Q. Based on news reports and official announcements, Mr. Yun Liu estimated that Vietnam would have a total of 112m vaccines by end-2021, enough to fully vaccinate over 56% of its population. The sooner Vietnam can vaccine at least 70% of its population (which is likely in 2Q22), the sooner it can re-open its border for mass tourism and foreign investors.

Meanwhile, VNDirect expected that the number of daily new cases would be able to decline in September thanks to drastic social measures being applied and faster vaccination progress. The government estimates that over 30 million doses of the anti-coronavirus vaccine will arrive in Vietnam within the next two months and aims to have over 70% of the population vaccinated by the end of the first quarter of 2022.

Additionally, Vietnam is speeding up the development of domestically produced vaccines. Three potential names of domestically produced vaccines are Nanocovax, Covivac, and ART-154. The best candidate is Nanocovax, which has completed Phase 2 clinical trials. Nanocovax is currently in Phase 3 trials and is being considered for emergency use by the Ministry of Health. Covivac has been in Phases 2 trials since 18 August. Meanwhile, the first phase of clinical trials of the ART-154 anti-coronavirus vaccine kicked off on 15 August. ART-154 is a two-dose self-amplifying STARR mRNA vaccine to be produced under the collaboration of VinBioCare (a member of Vingroup, VIC VN) and the US-based company Arcturus Therapeutics.