The FED seems set to stay on hold for the foreseeable future but most other G10 central banks should continue to ease.
Many analysts’ key currency call for this year is that the yen will go from being the worst performing G10 currency over the past couple of years, to being the best in...
A degree of divergence seems likely to creep into G10 monetary policy as the Fed pauses while those that have been easing carry on, and those that have not started to...
Economic recovery and an inflation rate close to target should give reason for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to lift policy rates further. However, the BoJ would need to...
In the past couple of days, we’ve heard Bank of Japan and Bank of England governors suggest that policy rates will likely head for “neutral” as policy is adjusted. The...
The BoJ almost certainly won’t hike rates again this week, but this need not necessarily rule out another painful carry-trade unwind.
As a relative price, currencies move most when there is divergence between countries, not convergence.
At present, there isn’t any official data to confirm MoF/BoJ’s FX intervention, but it looks as if the Ministry of Finance/Bank of Japan intervened to buy the yen again...
The Standard Bank expected the yen’s recovery would remain slow and possibly require more FX intervention.
There’s still some very low funding rates out there (the yen), while prior monetary policy tightening elsewhere means that policy rates are high and interest rate...
FX intervention usually meets with a sceptical response. It has been no different for the Bank of Japan as its recent efforts to strengthen the yen have been dismissed...
Incessant yen weakness seems to have finally snapped the patience of the Japanese authorities as it looks as if the Bank of Japan intervened on behalf of the Ministry of...
Sooner or later, it looks as if Japanese policymakers could intervene in the FX market by using a three-step process.
The Japanese Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) seem to be readying themselves for currency intervention as the yen hits its lowest level in 34-years...
The Bank of Japan lifted the short-term policy rate for the first time in seventeen years last week but the yen still languishes close to its weakest level against...
Last week, we saw the third attempt by US dollar/yen to really break through the 150 level that has proved an insurmountable barrier twice before since October 2022.
BoJ could intervene again, but the situation for US dollar/yen now does not appear as precarious as it was when the BoJ intervened back in the autumn of 2022.
Just as G10 central banks collectively tightened policy through 2022 and much of 2023, so markets anticipate a collective easing of policy starting in the next few...
If the Bank of Japan tried to do something meaningful with its tweak to the yield curve control (YCC) strategy yesterday it looks as if it might have failed – and that’s...
What does the inability of US dollar/yen to move too far from 150 tell us about the state of the currency market?
At the start of this year, many analysts expected euro/dollar would trade up from its opening level of 1.06 to around 1.10 in mid-year and then on to 1.15 by the...
Dollar/yen has risen into the region that prompted the Bank of Japan to intervene in the FX market last autumn. Hence it seems that intervention was only successful for...
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