Unsurprisingly, the surge in energy prices last week has led to a sharp reassessment of the G10 monetary policy outlook. Inflation will undoubtedly rise, if only...
Most G10 central banks have been cutting policy rates, but long-term yields have risen. This is highly unusual. While factors such as Trump’s tariff tantrum in the...
A number of G10 central banks have become more cautious about policy easing. Here we’d include the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Reserve Bank of Australia. But...
While most G10 central banks remain in easing mode, it is clear that the path to lower rates is becoming a little trickier.
The so-called neutral policy rate has attracted more and more attention as central banks reach, or near, the end of their easing cycles. But not only is it hugely...
Central bankers will try to look through supply shocks. That may be right when it comes to energy, but it is not right when the supply shock is in food.
Most G10 central banks remain on course to cut rates further as they grapple to find the hard-to-estimate neutral rate.
The current economic slowdown pushes the Fed to lower rates to around neutral, or even lower, but persistent inflation forces Fed to ‘tweak’ rates back up, possibly late...
The tilt towards easier policy remains very much in place across central banks outside the US. The outlook for Fed policy is more opaque but it does appear that...
The imposition of US tariffs poses enormous challenges for central banks, not least the Fed. Many analysts believe that the Fed will keep its powder dry but other...
Should central banks set policy in a different way if they are more uncertain about the economic outlook?
The FED seems set to stay on hold for the foreseeable future but most other G10 central banks should continue to ease.
Central bankers might have more to think about their monetary policy, because the Fed is pausing and the US dollar is surging.
The Fed is not the only central bank that has faced difficulties as a result of Donald Trump's victory.
We have spoken many times about how central banks, and particularly the Fed, seem to be basing policy on a more reactive response to the course of data than a proactive...
In the past couple of days, we’ve heard Bank of Japan and Bank of England governors suggest that policy rates will likely head for “neutral” as policy is adjusted. The...
Modest and steady rate cuts from G10 central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve (FED), are likely to keep riskier assets like equities and emerging markets well...
As central banks rev up their monetary policy easing cycles, thoughts will undoubtedly turn to the extent of rate cuts that we are likely to see over the cycle.
For much of this year the market has assumed that FED would be amongst the most cautious of the central banks when cutting rates. But just recently the momentum has...
There is clearly a sense that central banks are looking to cut policy rates, in many cases before inflation has reached target and a considerable time before central...
Austrian ECB member, and noted hawk Robert Holzman described the Fed as being the “gorilla in the room” when it comes to ECB decisions on policy easing.
Last week, we heard from policymakers at two European central banks; the ECB and the Riksbank. But while their economic situations and monetary policy outlooks appear...
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