Last week, we heard from policymakers at two European central banks; the ECB and the Riksbank. But while their economic situations and monetary policy outlooks appear...
There is an enormous focus on when central banks, particularly the Fed, will start to reduce rates and the number of likely cuts in 2024.
We often hear that movements in market interest rates, and other financial prices are “doing the central bank’s work”.
The Swiss National Bank destroyed this image with its surprise 25-bps rate cut. It is what other central banks might do?
That’s what we think other G10 central banks should – and will - do when they consider rate policy this year. It means that they should still push ahead with rate cuts...
Just as G10 central banks collectively tightened policy through 2022 and much of 2023, so markets anticipate a collective easing of policy starting in the next few...
There continues to be a good deal of focus on financial market pricing of central bank policy this year, particularly the Fed.
There continues to be a good deal of focus on financial market pricing of central bank policy this year, particularly the Fed.
As this is the last daily commentary of the year we thought that we’d outline some of our assumptions for next year and how these shape our predictions for financial...
Perhaps understandably, there’s been what might be called ‘rate-cut-creep’ in the markets as it seems that both analysts and market pricing have inched forward the...
Trust in the Fed Chair is the lowest it has ever been according to Gallup and if you think that this is only a problem in the US, just look at the UK where politicians...
It seems that developed-country central banks have finished their tightening cycle, with the exception of the BoJ which has yet to start. But those banks meeting this...
Central banks have come in for a lot of criticism for missing the surge in inflation.
Some central bankers continue to stress that monetary policy has to stay restrictive for a considerable period of time.
Many economists said 2024 would be a year of rate cuts even though inflation will likely lie above target levels.
What we are talking about is the losses that many central banks are making.
The ECB seemed to send out a clear message last week that policy rates won’t rise again if the economy develops as the bank expects.
Are central banks starting an easing cycle well ahead of major central banks such as the Fed and ECB taking a risk with their currencies? The recent slump in the Polish...
Most G10 central banks have 2% inflation targets and most forecast that inflation will be down to this level, or only slightly above, within the next few years.
For some central banks, the interest rate cutting cycle has begun. But with the Fed widely seen to be some nine months to a year away from its first cut, does this mean...
Inflation has come down in most G10 countries, but central banks have not caused it. This may seem controversial argument but it is not really.
There has been much made of the fact that sharp rate hikes from just about all G10 central banks have not led to the depth of economic slowdown that was feared.
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