If we look at the performance of the US dollar against other G10 currencies since President Trump’s 2024 election win we see a very similar pattern to how the US dollar...
While it might look as if the FX market will trade through to the end of the year in a very stable fashion, there are still a number of events that could generate...
The FX market has become quiescent after a rush of volatility in the spring around the time of President Trump’s tariff bombshell. That’s good news for currencies,...
Implied volatility across G10 currencies is about as low as we’ve seen in a year, or more. And yet, we’d argue that this is in contrast to the amount and volatility of...
Sometimes important announcements produce significant and instantaneous reactions in currencies. Be they about data, policy – central bank sackings. But sometimes they...
The US dollar is dominant in many facets of the international financial market.
If Mr. Donald Trump wins the US election, this result will lead to a short-term rally in the USD dollar.
Political factors remain to the fore, and not just in the US. Japan’s weekend election outcome has currency implications as well.
The FX market focuses heavily on monetary policy and interest rate differentials.
Sooner or later, it looks as if Japanese policymakers could intervene in the FX market by using a three-step process.
Last week, we saw the third attempt by US dollar/yen to really break through the 150 level that has proved an insurmountable barrier twice before since October 2022.
What does the inability of US dollar/yen to move too far from 150 tell us about the state of the currency market?
Dollar/yen has risen into the region that prompted the Bank of Japan to intervene in the FX market last autumn. Hence it seems that intervention was only successful for...
We can make the case that positioning in some markets has been overextended.
Volatility has slumped in the G10 FX market. Should we take this as a sign that boring range-trading is set to persist? Or is it a sign that the market is waiting for...
As far as we can see surveys of investors appear to show a clear preference for international equities over those in the US. This can change, of course but, if it does...
Trading has only just resumed for the year but already the FX market seems to have the bit between its teeth to produce another volatile year.
In addressing this question, we want to look at what surprises could happen next year that boost currencies in a way that we might not be anticipating.
Major central banks have accumulated huge amounts of assets via all the bond (and FX) purchases done over the years since the global financial crisis (GFC).
The domestic foreign exchange market remains stable amid global volatility.
A plethora of central bank meetings this week will hog the headlines and possibly dictate short-term, if not longer-term currency movements.
Until not too long ago, all kinds of inflation seemed to be considered as bad. But then came the period of lowflation and, for some, almost permanent deflation. The...
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