Could a fed funds rate of 2.4 percent suffice? Is it feasible that it will need a lot more, including big bond sales? This is, without a doubt, a difficult issue to...
We often talk of central banks being behind the curve because they are seemingly too slow to recognise an inflation threat and end up hiking policy rates too late.
If you read around the financial press, it seems that there’s lots of talk that rising US rates will lift the dollar. But Mr. Steve Barrow, Head of Standard Bank G10...
CPI inflation in the United States is 7.5% while it is 5% in the euro zone. Why are both the Fed and ECB still easing policy?
The crucial uncertainty most central banks face is whether the surge in inflation will stick.
Perhaps the main message that the market took from Fed Chair Powell’s press conference on Wednesday is that the upcoming tightening cycle could be more volatile and...
If we go back in history, there are lots of examples of policymakers that have been accused of acting too slowly on inflation; of being "behind the curve". The same...
Bank of England Governor Bailey argued that he does not see changes in the global economy that suggest interest rates will return to the levels seen before the global...
While the path of monetary policy in the US and elsewhere will claim a lot of column inches when trying to predict currency movements this year it is sensible to be...
Through last year, many experts said that the Fed and many other central banks were wrong to suggest that inflation was transitory.
The US dollar rose and risk assets such as stocks fell after the latest set of hawkish minutes were released by the Fed earlier this week. The market seems to fear the...
The last few years have not seen a clear directional trend in the dollar. Last year, the dollar rose in the region of 5% in trade-weighted terms but that just cancelled...
VND could turn more neutral in 2022 due the FED’s rates hike, inflation pressure in Vietnam...
A quick look at the front end of the money markets in the US and UK tells you that traders and investors are primed for a relatively modest rate-hike cycle although...
The Fed is effectively spinning plates at the moment as it tries to keep the economy growing, inflation from surging, asset prices from imploding and international...
Goodhart’s law, named after the British economist, Charles Goodhart loosely states that if policymakers start to target something it will misbehave.
USD is forecasted to continue its short-term rally within a longer-term downtrend.
Market volatility might be more limited this week given the US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, but we see a little let-up in the broader trend of rising volatility as...
The Federal Reserve could lift the fed funds target two times next year, not one. That’s more than most economists seem to expect but no more than is priced in by the...
Just how the Fed and other central banks respond to the rise in inflation is clearly going to be critical for how financial markets perform.
U.S inflation will come down again; it is how much it comes down, that is the key.
As we inch slowly but surely towards Fed tapering and later, rate hikes, the significance of the Fed as the key determinant of the global financial cycle will be clear...
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