Vietnam GDP growth predicted to hit 6.2% in 2021: CIEM

A flexible approach in managing the twin goal helped the country keep the economy intact in the most complicated Covid-19 outbreak yet.

In the most optimistic scenario, Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2021 would reach 6.2% year-on-year on the assumption that the pandemic is contained in August, higher than the 6% target set by the National Assembly.

Head of the General Research Department under the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) Nguyen Anh Duong revealed the forecast at a meeting on July 15.

Duong, however, said the economic growth would be 5.9%, slightly lower in case the pandemic could only be put off in October.

CIEM Director Nguyen Hong Minh said since early 2021, Vietnam has faced two Covid-19 outbreaks, with the latest breaking out in April the most complicated yet.

“Despite the severe economic consequences, Vietnam continues to show its resilience with GDP growth reaching 5.64% in the six-month period,” Minh added, saying the country remains among a handful of fast-growing economies in Asia.

According to Minh, such results came as the government has been flexible in its approach towards the twin goal, including the permission for manufacturing plants remaining operational on the condition of meeting Covid-19 countermeasures, or allowing enterprises to import vaccines.

Urban railway section Nhon-Hanoi Station. Photo: Thanh Dat

On Vietnam’s economic prospect in the last six months of the year, Head of CIEM’s General Research Department Duong said the country’s capability to fight the pandemic, progress of public investment, and the utilization of free trade agreements (FTAs) would determine its economic performance.

To help the economy realize the twin goal, Duong expected the government to continue providing support measures for businesses and workers, especially in simplifying criteria in accessing relief packages.

“Pushing for innovation, digital economy and effective implementation of next-generation FTAs are priorities,” he noted.

However, in the long-term, a new mindset in economic reform to ensure substantial and comprehensive improvements in the legal framework would support sustainable recovery, Duong added, with the immediate goal would be to expand the use of public online services and non-cash payment in the economy.