What scenario for the Vietnam stock market in 2Q2026?

Vietnam’s stock market extended its momentum at the opening of the week on April 13, buoyed by optimism surrounding the market upgrade story, with the benchmark index gaining nearly 9 points.

At the close, the VN-Index was up almost 9 points at 1,758. Liquidity remained robust, with trading value on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange exceeding VND 22.5 trillion.

The shareholder meeting season and FTSE’s market reclassification review in April are among the positive factors supporting investor sentiment.

Assuming tensions in the Middle East continue to ease, the market upgrade story could become the most important driver for the VN-Index.

A supportive policy backdrop

The recent correction also served as a necessary pause before the market could move higher again, while stock prices selectively absorbed negative information. According to analysts at An Binh Securities (ABS), positive signals suggest that the 1,586–1,606 range has become an important support zone for the market through the end of 2026. That said, the long-term trend remains in a holding pattern until the market decisively breaks above 1,920.

On the political and policy front, the newly elected 16th National Assembly convened its first session and appointed the country’s leadership for the 2026–2030 term, with the aim of steering Vietnam toward double-digit annual growth. The session also approved socio-economic development plans, the medium-term public investment plan, the national financial plan, and the five-year public borrowing and debt repayment plan for 2026–2030.

“Immediately after taking office, the new government leadership moved quickly. The Prime Minister ordered action to remove bottlenecks for more than 1,500 stalled projects, while the State Bank of Vietnam met with commercial banks, after which deposit, lending and interbank interest rates all began to decline,” ABS said.

In particular, FTSE’s confirmation that Vietnam passed its March 2026 review and will officially be upgraded to Emerging Market status, effective September 21, 2026, has lifted sentiment and emboldened capital flows. Passive inflows from global ETFs are estimated at around $1.7 billion, to be disbursed in four phases from September 2026 to September 2027 to reduce volatility and market disruption. Vietnam’s market could also attract another $4 billion to $5 billion from active funds.

A market outlook shaped by mixed forces

The stock market outlook in April is likely to be shaped by a mix of domestic positives and external headwinds. Vietnam’s economy remains resilient, with first-quarter 2026 GDP growth reaching its highest level in 15 years, supported by expanding manufacturing, record foreign investment and strong trade performance.

According to ABS, first-quarter earnings prospects are positive across several large-cap sectors, including banking, securities, retail, public investment, building materials, fertilizer and downstream oil and gas. Many large companies are also still projecting growth in their 2026 business plans.

At the same time, several negative factors are being actively addressed. Conflict in the Middle East has disrupted supply chains and sent oil prices sharply higher, putting pressure on inflation. The government, however, has increased supply and stabilized fuel prices, keeping them below the global average. Inflation rose to 4.65% year-on-year in March and remains a priority concern.

The conflict has also shifted capital into the U.S. dollar and gold, putting pressure on exchange rates and raising the risk that central banks may delay rate cuts. Credit growth has outpaced deposit growth, straining system liquidity and causing interest rates to fluctuate. The State Bank is working with commercial banks to ease rate pressure, but this remains a key variable to watch.

In terms of valuation, after the March correction, the VN-Index’s P/E ratio fell to 14.05x on April 9, 2026, slightly above the three-year average of 13.83x, a level still considered attractive given first-quarter earnings prospects.

Base case and cautious case

ABS outlined two scenarios for the market. Under the first, the market successfully holds medium-term support at 1,600 and builds a sideways structure within a 1,600–1,880 range. Investors are advised to prioritize daily trading opportunities in stocks that hold support levels or have corrected deeply while watching the 1,586–1,606 support zone closely.

So far, nearly half of April suggests the market is tracking this scenario, moving sideways while gradually edging higher and approaching the expected 1,800 threshold.

The more optimistic scenario would see the VN-Index break above 1,920 after a consolidation phase, with a potential upside target of 2,184, allowing investors to increase existing equity exposure.

Even so, many analysts believe the probability of that second scenario remains low. In particular, developments around the opening and closing of the Strait of Hormuz and the actions of the parties involved, which are critical to regional stability and global energy flows, remain highly unpredictable. As a result, the market is more likely to continue improving, but cautiously.

“Our overall recommendation suggests the market is moving under scenario one, holding support in the 1,600–1,860 range. Risks for equities have declined significantly, making it safer to continue increasing medium-term holdings. For short-term traders, trading frequency can be raised around support and resistance levels, with a preference for stocks whose latest bottoms are higher than previous ones. Priority sectors for deployment include banking, real estate, securities, steel, urea, seaports and logistics,” ABS said, while still maintaining caution amid what may prove to be only a temporary brightening in the outlook.

In a broadly similar assessment, Nguyen Hoan Nien, an analyst at Shinhan Securities Vietnam (SSV), said that based on projected EPS growth of 16.5% to 18.5% in 2026, a target P/E range of 12.5x to 13.5x would be appropriate. That is below the 10-year average, reflecting persistent macroeconomic uncertainty.

Under SSV’s base case, the VN-Index would return to a trading range of 1,600 to 1,800, the same base established in August 2025. Technically, the market is still in a short-term downtrend. This scenario would gain firmer confirmation if the index rises above 1,743, ending the current decline.

The positive scenario assumes the conflict ends and domestic developments provide enough momentum for a breakout. Technically, the VN-Index would need to clear the 1,750–1,800 zone decisively on strong liquidity, accompanied by net foreign buying and leadership from banking and real estate stocks.

On the impact of oil prices and inflation on investment strategy, SSV said that if oil remains in the $90–$102 a barrel range, inflation could reach 4.5% in the second quarter of 2026. While first-quarter earnings may still show modest growth thanks to delayed cost pass-through, the tourism and retail sectors could come under greater pressure in the second quarter because of higher energy costs. The trajectory of Fed rates and domestic deposit rates will be key factors shaping market sentiment in the second half.

The compression in gross profit margins is unlikely to show up fully in the first quarter. Upcoming earnings reports may still deliver modest profit growth for the broader market. Investors, the analyst said, may be able to enjoy a short “good spell” in April and May, as growth-related news coincides with FTSE’s market classification announcement.

Against that backdrop, SSV recommends a “barbell” strategy. Investors should combine a high allocation to defensive stocks, such as utilities and high-dividend names, to protect portfolios, while reserving a smaller portion for more speculative names or those benefiting from geopolitical tensions, such as oil and gas and chemicals, Nguyen Hoan Nien said. At the same time, he warned investors to avoid medium-risk investments while the market’s direction remains unclear.