Adapting agricultural exports to new scenario

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector posted a GDP growth of 3.74% in the first quarter of 2025, contributing 6.09% to the overall increase in the economy’s added value. This represents the highest first-quarter growth in the past four years.

Encouraging signs but challenges remain

The Institute of Policy and Strategy for Agriculture and Environment noted that while the sector entered 2025 with promising signals, the overall growth picture still shows signs of strain. One of the key drivers—agricultural, forestry, and fishery exports—is facing mounting obstacles. Several major export items have seen significant drops in value: rice exports fell by 19.7% due to a 20.1% decline in average export prices; fruit and vegetable exports dropped 11.3%, with the Chinese market alone down nearly 39%.

Compounding the challenge, input material costs rose by nearly 5% year-on-year, eroding profit margins and increasing financial pressure on businesses. New risks emerging from US tariff adjustments have forced many firms to rethink their entire business plans.

Woodsland JSC, a wood exporter, reported a 20% rise in orders in the first quarter, but remains wary. “Earlier this year, we projected 20–25% growth. Now, with the threat of high tariffs, that goal is wavering. We're bracing for a loss of market share in the US, which directly translates to fewer orders and lower revenue,” said Le Ngoc Mai, Head of Planning Division.

The ripple effects could reach across key export chains including seafood, fruits, and livestock, if the US shifts its stance. In this scenario, Vietnamese enterprises must adapt more rapidly and flexibly or risk falling behind in global competition.

At the same time, major markets like the EU, China, and several Asian countries are tightening standards for quarantine, food safety, and pesticide and antibiotic residues.

“Businesses are having to navigate both tariff barriers and increasingly strict quality standards. From now until the end of the year, things will be tense, requiring comprehensive and flexible preparation,” said Ngo Thi Thu Hong, CEO of Ameii Viet Nam JSC.

Understanding the long-term challenges, many businesses are taking early action. The most critical strategy at present is diversifying markets to gradually reduce dependence on large, high-risk markets.

“We’re focusing on expanding our customer base to lessen reliance on the US market. At the same time, we're enhancing product quality by applying science and technology to boost our competitiveness in exports,” a Woodsland JSC representative shared.

Flexible adaptation to secure the 65 billion USD target

To prepare for the potential imposition of high US tariffs on Vietnamese agricultural products, IPSARD has outlined three response scenarios.

If a 10% tariff rate is applied throughout the year uniformly across countries, the impact on agricultural growth will be minimal.

If tariffs increase to 20% after a delay and remain post-negotiation, export turnover in the second half of the year could drop by 20%, reducing overall sector growth to about 3.8–3.85% (a 0.15–2 percentage point drop).

If a 46% tariff is enforced after the delay, exports could fall by 40% in the second half of the year, bringing growth down to 3.6–3.8%.

Based on these forecasts, the Institute has recommended urgently enhancing dialogue with the US to either reduce tariffs or establish exemptions for strategic agricultural products. Simultaneously, ensuring transparency in product origin—a crucial factor for market trust—must be a top priority.

Emergency support measures should also be deployed swiftly. Though short-term, they must be strong enough to help farmers and businesses navigate the turbulence. These could include reducing import taxes on input materials, deferring VAT, corporate income tax, and personal income tax payments for agricultural producers, or offering preferential interest rates to affected groups.

In the long run, boosting productivity, quality, and competitiveness remains the key strategy. The essence of Resolution 57-NQ/TW on breakthroughs in science, technology, and digital transformation must be implemented at the sector level. Only innovation and technology adoption can reduce costs, add value, and expand markets. Restructuring key agricultural sectors, especially seafood (shrimp and tra fish), is also a pressing concern.

“We can no longer operate the old way. Competing with countries like India or Ecuador means we must innovate, cut costs, and truly create added value,” stressed Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment Phung Duc Tien.

Another vital direction is expanding export markets. In addition to traditional destinations like China, ASEAN, the EU, and the US, Viet Nam must actively tap into high-potential markets such as BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China), Latin America, Africa, and especially the Halal market, where demand for safe, high-quality food is steadily rising.

Though figures in the first quarter are encouraging—with the sector’s GDP growing 3.74%, the highest in four years—significant challenges remain. To achieve the 65 billion USD export target in 2025, the agricultural sector needs a comprehensive strategy: flexibility amid change, resilience under pressure, and steadfast commitment to long-term goals.