Banks' third quarter performance forecast: Only one bank's profit declines

The third quarter profits of banks were all positive. Photo: Internet

At present, only TPBank has announced nine months of 2021 operating results with a 15% increase in credit. The bank's total operating income reached VND9,868 billion, up 39% over the same period last year. As a result, by the end of September, TPBank achieved 75.76% of the year's profit plan.

TPBank's announcement did not give a specific profit figure, but the calculation was based on the profit plan set at the beginning of the year at VND5,500 billion, meaning that the bank's nine-month profit reached more than VND4,166 billion, an increase of 37.7% over the same period last year.

For other banks, according to SSI Research's forecast, in the third quarter of 2021, Techcombank will be the bank with the highest profit with VND5,200 billion in pre-tax profit, thanks to a 16% increase in credit.

The second in terms of profit in the third quarter was Vietcombank with about VND5,000 billion in pre-tax profit thanks to credit growth of 11.5% compared to the beginning of the year, but it had to step up cutting interest rates to support customers and increase risk provisions.

However, for nine months and forecast for the whole year, Vietcombank is still forecasted to be at the top in terms of profit of the whole system.

Specifically, in nine months, Techcombank forecasts a profit of VND16,700 billion and Vietcombank's VND18,600 billion. For the whole of 2021, Techcombank is likely to reach VND22,300 billion in profit, up 40.8% over the same period last year.

Meanwhile, Vietcombank achieved VND24,300 billion in profit, up only 5.4%.

In 2022, SSI forecasts, Vietcombank will regain its growth momentum with an increase of 23%, reaching VND29,900 billion in profit, Techcombank is forecasted to increase profit at 20%, reaching VND26,700 billion.

MB is also forecasted to grow well in the third quarter, reaching about VND3,300-3,400 billion, thanks to an increase of 12-13% in credit in the first nine months. For the whole year, MB's profit may increase by 42.2% and next year's profit may increase by 21%.

Meanwhile, like Vietcombank, VietinBank had to implement a credit program to support customers, so its profit growth was "modest" in the third quarter, reaching only VND3,000 billion, up 3.3% over the same period last year. SSI forecasts that VietinBank's full-year profit will only increase by 2.7%, reaching VND17,300 billion and can only regain its growth form next year after reaching VND21,800 billion.

For VPBank, SSI said that the bank's profit in the third quarter of 2021 was only VND3,200 billion due to the negative impact of Covid-19. However, this estimate of SSI's profit for VPBank does not include the sudden income of nearly $1.4 billion that VPBank earned from the sale of 49% of FE Credit's capital to a Japanese partner.

Among the forecasted banks, VIB is the only bank that SSI thinks profits will decrease. Accordingly, although credit growth increased by 11% compared to the beginning of the year, the bank's net interest income was still negatively affected by VIB's restructuring to support customers. In addition, the insurance business, which usually accounts for 20% of VIB's pre-tax profit, is under pressure during a long period of social distancing.

According to SSI, VIB's pre-tax profit in the third quarter of 2021 was only VND1,300-1,400 billion, down 16% compared to the same period last year. But in nine months, the bank still achieved a profit of VND5,500 billion, up 36.6% over the same period in 2020.

According to the results of the survey on business trends in the fourth quarter of 2021 for all credit institutions of the State Bank, in the third quarter, credit institutions said that pre-tax profit and operating results business activities (net interest income, net fee and service income, proprietary income) tended to decline compared to the previous quarter.

In 2021, 83.7% of credit institutions expect their profit before tax to grow positively, 3% expect it to be unchanged, and 13.3% are worried about decreasing profits.