Efforts to guarantee GDP growth target

According to an analysis by a senior executive at FPT Group, in the first five months of the year, although there were 44,600 enterprises that suspended operations for the first time, there were also 111,800 newly established and reactivated businesses. This positive gap reflects a very bright economic picture in the early months of the year.

This optimism is mirrored in the stock market with the number of newly opened accounts setting continuous records.

The VN-Index, after shaking off tariff pressures, has returned to a slow but steady upward trend. Many stocks previously considered the market’s weakest have now broken out of their downward trend to embark on a new growth cycle. Signs of “double bottom” patterns (W-shaped charts) and “cup and handle” patterns (U-shaped charts with a slight handle) are beginning to appear on weekly charts. These are precisely the confirmations that investors have been longing for since the “tsunami wave” of the COVID-19 era.

Thus, Viet Nam’s economic outlook is genuinely bright. The only potential downside is some concern over the 20% reciprocal tariff agreed upon between Viet Nam and the US. This rate is higher than the 10.6% average tariff the US applied to Vietnamese exports in 2024. However, it represents only the upper ceiling, and in practice, positive adjustments could still be made for certain goods or sectors. According to calculations by the General Statistics Office, the impact of this 20% tariff would reduce GDP by 0.8% at most — a decline that is not overly severe and is fully manageable.

Viet Nam has just entered the summer season, and this year even includes a leap lunar month (intercalary June), which will increase opportunities for the services sector. With a substantial supply of money injected into the market and the economy, the service sector is expected to post even stronger growth in the remaining months, providing a better offset for the overall economic indicators.

In addition, there is substantial growth potential from public investment. The maximum potential for public investment in 2025 is enormous. The budget allocation is 790 trillion VND, but this can be raised to 1.13 quadrillion VND thanks to the 338 trillion VND in budget surplus from 2024. In 2024, public investment disbursement capacity reached only 70%. So, how much can this capacity improve this year?

According to reports, as of June 30, 2025, disbursed public investment capital have reached 268 trillion VND. While the disbursement rate has improved significantly compared to 2024, it still falls far short of expectations.

It can be said that the country has mobilised resources very effectively for this year’s growth target, especially credit, which has been pushed up to 16%. Budget revenue in recent years has boomed, consistently exceeding projections. We do not lack funds for development investment, but the capacity to spend these funds remains limited. Therefore, the success or failure of the growth target — the foundation for achieving 8% GDP growth — still hinges on the results of public investment disbursement.

The economic picture is already bright, but public investment disbursement must shine even more brilliantly and make a breakthrough for this year’s GDP growth target to be firmly secured.