Investment outlook for 2026: Opening the era of large-scale capital

A strategic turning point

In 2025, the global economy faced multiple challenges, ranging from geopolitical volatility to rising trade tensions. These factors are expected to remain unpredictable variables in 2026.

Experts note that while global headwinds call for caution, the investment case for Vietnam in 2026 is fundamentally a domestically driven story. Strong internal growth engines and an unprecedented development agenda are set to create a distinct and compelling investment landscape.

Vietnam enters 2026 with a solid macroeconomic foundation. With GDP projected at around USD 510 billion, ranking among the world’s 32 largest economies, the country has firmly established itself as one of the most attractive investment destinations in the region. This foundation not only provides momentum for economic growth but also opens up substantial space for long-term investment opportunities.

According to financial expert Phan Lê Thành Long, a particularly significant event at the end of 2025 outlined the most important investment narrative for the coming period: the simultaneous groundbreaking and inauguration of 234 key projects nationwide, with a total investment value of up to VND 3.4 quadrillion. The scale of capital required represents a very substantial share of the economy’s total outstanding credit.

A deeper analysis of the capital structure reveals both a major challenge and a major opportunity. State capital accounts for 18.4% (approximately VND 627 trillion), mainly allocated to counterpart funding and land clearance. Capital to be mobilized from other sources makes up more than 81% (around VND 2.79 quadrillion).

“Clearly, the commercial banking system cannot shoulder this enormous capital demand on its own. This inevitably places the capital market—especially the stock market—at the center. It will be a critical channel for capital mobilization during Vietnam’s next five-year growth cycle (2026–2030),” the expert emphasized.

Facing the challenge of mobilizing the aforementioned VND 2.79 quadrillion, Mr. Long noted that the government’s official issuance of Decree No. 323/2025/NĐ-CP on December 18, 2025, on the establishment of an International Financial Center (IFC), represents a necessary strategic response to energize the next phase of national growth. This is a long-term orientation aimed at building a legal foundation and an open institutional framework to attract global capital flows, leading financial institutions, and high-quality human resources.

For the IFC to operate effectively, an estimated two-year roadmap will be required for ministries and agencies to develop and issue comprehensive mechanisms covering tax incentives, capital flows, and foreign exchange management, among others.

The impact of the IFC will be cross-sectoral, extending beyond the financial industry alone. It is expected to generate strong spillover effects for real estate and infrastructure, stimulate technological growth, and enhance Vietnam’s international standing. The emergence of the IFC, combined with massive domestic capital demand, will create a dynamic investment environment with unprecedented opportunities for the Vietnamese economy.

Selecting investment opportunities

In the final weeks of 2025, the stock market responded positively to the narrative of the economy’s enormous capital absorption needs. Investor optimism was reinforced by growth potential stemming from mega infrastructure and real estate projects.

For investors, accurately identifying sectors and companies that directly benefit from the public investment cycle and massive capital demand will be the “key” to portfolio success in 2026 and throughout the subsequent five-year period.

According to experts, despite some earlier pessimistic forecasts, the banking sector is positioned for a more favorable 2026. Immediate catalysts include efforts to accelerate credit growth toward year-end to meet performance targets, evidenced by a “race” to raise deposit interest rates to secure funding sources.

This short-term momentum is reinforced by a massive long-term flow of capital demand from large-scale projects, further cementing the indispensable role of banks as the primary capital conduit for the 2026–2030 growth cycle. A pipeline of infrastructure, real estate, and public-private partnership (PPP) or build-transfer (BT) projects will serve as key growth drivers for enterprises in this sector for many years to come.

As Vietnam enters a new growth cycle, investors need to adopt a long-term perspective, focusing on sustainable growth narratives in the capital market rather than becoming overly preoccupied with short-term monetary fluctuations. An effective strategy for 2026 is to concentrate on leading enterprises that stand to benefit directly from the public investment cycle and the development of the national financial infrastructure.

In the forthcoming era of large-scale capital, success will not be defined by navigating short-term monetary volatility, but by long-term strategic alignment with Vietnam’s growth trajectory.