Local steel industry sees recovery signals

A  worker from Hoà Phát Group operates a steel rolling line. — VNA/VNS Photo Tuấn Anh

HÀ NỘI — The steel industry recovered strongly in both production and consumption outputs and selling prices in November. That showed positive signs for the industry to regain growth momentum after the gloomy period, according to insiders.

Data from the Việt Nam Steel Association (VSA) revealed that steel manufacturing output in November totalled nearly 2.5 million tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 34 per cent. Steel consumption topped over 2.5 million tonnes, up 30 per cent year-on-year.

After two months remaining stable, domestic steel prices recorded three sessions of increase in November, especially in the North. The strongest price hike in the month was VNĐ410 per kilo at the session on November 22. Thanks to increases, selling prices of Hòa Phát and VAS-branded steel exceeded VNĐ14,000 per kilo.

In November, the country's steel exports hit 7.4 million tonnes, surging 29 per cent over the same month last year with main export markets including ASEAN, the EU, the US, India and Taiwan (China), the association said.

In the steel industry outlook report released on December 13, Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) said the recent recovery in global steel prices was mainly thanks to short-term expectations from the Chinese government's policy packages and high input material prices.

VCBS forecast that global bar steel prices would likely remain at VNĐ14-15 million per tonne until the end of the first half of 2024, before subsequent price increases.

According to VCBS, the global increasing demand would push up Việt Nam's steel industry. The World Steel Association predicted the world's steel consumption demand would see a slight growth of 2 per cent by the year-end and continue to grow by 1.9 per cent in 2024. In particular, significant recovery would be seen in European countries, Asia and America.

The gradual recovery of the domestic real estate industry would also lay a foundation for steel industry demand in 2024, the company said, adding that the State's revised policies had gradually removed difficulties for the property sector which accounted for 60 per cent of local steel demand.

The number of under-way property projects showed growth in the North and recovery in the South. That would help demand for construction materials recover in the coming quarters, it said.

VCBS estimated that total construction steel consumption in 2023 would decrease by about 15 per cent before surging by 11 per cent in 2024 and the driving force for next year's growth would largely come from the recovery of the civil construction market.

Director of Mercantile Exchange of Việt Nam Phạm Quang Anh said he believed that concerted efforts of the Government to promote the disbursement of public capital would stimulate demand and step up domestic business and production activities. With robust signs from the realty and construction sectors, the steel market would recover soon, he said.

Meanwhile, VNDirect Securities Corporation said that the steel industry would boom in 2024 as the adoption of the amended Land Law would help remove financial bottlenecks for house buyers, throwing a charge into the real estate market.

According to the VSA, although public investment and the realty market were heating up, which would boost steel demand for the remainder of the year, it was not until Q1 of 2024 that the steel market would see a strong recovery.