Loosening liquidity: Cash flow returns to large-cap stocks

Complex Global Context

The global financial market is entering a critical transition phase. While geopolitical tensions have cooled, they remain unstable, creating mixed impacts on emerging markets. In this context, the Vietnamese stock market has reached a notable pivot point where cash flow is showing signs of returning to leading stock groups after a prolonged period of divergence.

According to Mr. Tran Hoang Son, Market Strategy Director at VPBankS, the international financial market is shifting from extreme tension to a temporary truce. Although the S&P 500 has surpassed its historic peak due to diplomatic expectations, this stability is considered unsustainable.

Recent statements by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding potential negotiations with Iran have created a positive psychological effect, yet systemic risks persist. In the Strait of Hormuz, vessel traffic is at a minimum, keeping oil prices high—WTI at approximately $94/barrel and Brent at around $103/barrel. This continues to exert cost-push inflationary pressure globally.

However, amidst shortages of chemicals, nitrogen gas, and fertilizer (Urea), Vietnam has emerged as a "safe haven" due to its self-sufficiency in agriculture and fertilizer production, thereby mitigating food security risks and opening long-term investment opportunities.

Regarding monetary policy, U.S. inflation with a CPI of 3.3% and PPI of 4% is keeping the Federal Reserve (Fed) cautious. The transition of power from Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh may create a policy gap, as the Fed is not yet ready to cut interest rates amid rising energy risks.

Flexible Regulation by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV)

Domestically, the SBV has demonstrated a proactive regulatory role to maintain money market stability. On the Open Market Operations (OMO) channel, after a net withdrawal of 72,000 billion VND last week, the regulator quickly injected back over 80,000 billion VND starting April 20, with tenors ranging from 14 to 56 days.

Year-to-date, the total net injection has reached 268,000 billion VND, successfully pulling interbank interest rates down from the 6.52% - 7% range to stabilize around 5.85%.

In the foreign exchange market, exchange rate pressure is also subsiding. The gap between the free market and interbank rates has narrowed significantly, indicating that a state of stability is being established.

Looking ahead, the SBV is expected to maintain abundant liquidity to support lowering lending rates, especially in priority sectors toward the end of 2026. This is seen as a crucial foundation for cash flow to return to the stock market after a period of cautious observation.

Sharp Market Divergence

Despite these factors, the Vietnamese stock market is experiencing a "green skin, red liver" paradox (rising index but falling individual stocks). While the VN-Index is approaching the 1,900-point threshold, it lacks consensus. Experts at VPBankS evaluate the banking group as the prime candidate to lead the market in the next phase.

In the short term, the market is forecasted to continue experiencing strong volatility within the 1,860 - 1,900 range, reflecting the reallocation of cash flow before a new trend forms. Therefore, investors should prioritize capital preservation and portfolio rotation. Specifically, it is necessary to decisively cut stocks that breach stop-loss levels or show negative technical signals, particularly in the electricity sector.

"Cash flow should focus on groups with solid fundamentals and positive Q1 business results, such as banking and retail. Investors should only increase their holdings once liquidity confirmation is present," the expert recommended.

Similarly, Mr. Hoang Anh Nhat, Director of the High-Net-Worth Client Division at AAS Securities, pointed out that banking stocks continue to serve as the market's "liquidity anchor." Notably, MBB stands out with its capital increase story and stock bonus plans. Technical trends show MBB forming an accumulation structure with "higher lows," confirming its superior strength compared to the general banking sector.

For CTG, technical signals are highly reliable as the price floor rises clearly while liquidity contracts—a sign that supply pressure is diminishing. Meanwhile, BID and VPB are also recording positive signals.

As macro variables remain uncertain, investors are advised to observe cautiously and focus on enterprises with strong financial health and clear growth stories, which will continue to act as "safe havens" for medium and long-term capital.