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07/06/2025, 02:00
Seizing opportunity, boosting rubber exports
Experts have assessed that the global rubber supply shortage will persist in 2025, leading to rising prices. This is considered an opportunity for domestic rubber enterprises to increase the value and volume of their exports.
As of the end of April 2025, Vietnam had exported more than 415,000 tons of various types of rubber, an increase of over 31% compared to the same period in 2024. Vietnam’s rubber is primarily exported to the Asian region.
According to the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's five largest rubber export markets include: China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Republic of Korea. The Vietnam Rubber Association forecasts that in 2025, the total export turnover of the entire sector will exceed 11 billion USD. Of this, natural rubber is expected to reach about 3.5 billion USD; rubber products about 5 billion USD; and rubber wood about 2.5 billion USD.
Estimates by the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) indicate that the global natural rubber supply will fall short by nearly 1.2 million tons.
The rubber harvesting and export output in Vietnam’s two direct competitors—Thailand and Indonesia—have decreased significantly due to prolonged heavy rains, disease outbreaks, and reduced planting areas. The shortage of rubber supply to the market is unlikely to be resolved soon due to various adverse factors, including geopolitical tensions and global weather and climate conditions. Vietnamese rubber is exported to over 80 countries (China 79.6%, India 5.3%, the EU 3.1%, the US 1.7%, etc.).
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, the natural rubber harvest in Vietnam has rebounded.
Vietnam’s increased output, while major producing countries are seeing declines, will help boost rubber export turnover in 2025, and natural rubber exports alone could exceed 3.5 billion USD.
Market analysts believe that in 2025, the US will continue to be a highly potential market for Vietnam’s rubber exports. The US International Trade Commission (USITC) reported that in 2024, the volume of rubber imported into the US was still about 2 million tons lower than in previous years.
The US is expected to increase its rubber imports in the near future thanks to improvements in domestic automobile production, as the country raises import tariffs on cars and diversifies its supply sources, reducing dependence on rubber imports from Canada, Mexico, and China (which together account for about 19% of total US rubber imports).
In 2024, Vietnam exported more than 29,000 tons of rubber to the US, helping increase the market share to 1.7%. This is still a low figure compared to other countries in the region, such as Thailand (16.4%), Indonesia (22.5%), and Malaysia (2.5%). However, this also presents an opportunity for Vietnam to expand its rubber exports to the US, especially as the US economy is on a recovery path and interest rates are entering a cutting phase.
In addition to the US, although the EU is not a main export market for Vietnamese rubber, meeting the stringent requirements of the EUDR regulation will enable Vietnam to tap into this high-purchasing-power market with significant growth potential.
Enterprises that meet the standards and are granted PEFC/VFCS forest certification will have a competitive edge in exporting to demanding markets.
Chairman of the Vietnam Rubber Association (VRA), Le Thanh Hung, stated that in 2025, the world will continue to face many upheavals from geopolitical tensions, climate change, and the green development trend. Rising inflation, global supply chain shifts, and carbon emission reduction pressures pose many challenges for the rubber industry, especially as it is closely linked to sectors such as automotive, construction, and consumer goods manufacturing.
Natural rubber prices are forecast to remain high, around 5-10% above 2024 levels. This is a favourable opportunity for domestic rubber exporters. Therefore, businesses must seize opportunities from challenges, promote transformation, and pursue sustainable development to enhance their position in the international market.
From now until the end of the year, VRA will focus on key tasks to support enterprise development, such as boosting trade promotion, building export support programs, expanding markets, and seeking customers. At the same time, it will focus on effectively accessing State funds, strengthening connections, and proposing timely policies to resolve difficulties.
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