Seizing the Bottom-fishing opportunity

Vietnam benefits greatly from the 90-day delay in the reciprocal tariff application, which helps to relieve the immediate strain on exports and its economic growth. VN-Index might go near the 1,300-point range in Q3 2025 if it takes advantage of this time to increase export markets or obtain tariff reductions.

This is the view shared by Ms. Cao Thi Ngoc Quynh, Head of Institutional Clients at VNDIRECT Securities Corporation, in an interview with Business Forum Magazine.

The stock market reacted positively to President Trump’s decision to delay the retaliatory tariffs for 90 days. Does this allow us to forecast the market’s direction, in your opinion?

As soon as President Trump announced the temporary postponement of retaliatory tariffs for 90 days, market sentiment became more upbeat.

In the short term, we expect several bullish sessions as sentiment rebounds from the previous sell-off. However, to assess the long-term trend, we need to closely monitor the outcomes of trade negotiations between Vietnam and the U.S. during the next 90 days. If Vietnam seizes this opportunity to negotiate tariff reductions or diversify its export markets, the stock market could reach the 1,300-point range by Q3 2025.

Conversely, if there’s no clear progress or if retaliatory actions escalate among countries involved in the trade war, selling pressure may return as investors revert to a risk-off mindset.

What is your investment outlook during this volatile period, particularly for individual investors?

In a period of high volatility like this, individual investors—who account for more than 90% of market activity—should maintain a cautious mindset without panicking. Overreacting, such as panic-selling on bad news or chasing hot stocks during sharp rallies, can lead to substantial risks.

In my view, investors should first average down their cost basis and reduce margin leverage to safer levels—or even lower—since the next 90 days will be unpredictable. A portion of the portfolio should be allocated to fixed-income assets to manage risk. In the long run, the focus should be on fundamentally strong companies whose prices have been significantly discounted during the recent sell-off, especially in sectors less reliant on U.S. exports or those that can quickly adapt to policy shifts.

Specifically, sectors like information technology, public investment, and domestic consumption will likely shine in this context. Investors should diversify their portfolios, avoid going “all-in” on a single sector or stock, and maintain a certain cash position to seize bottom-fishing opportunities if the market undergoes a deep correction. More importantly, staying updated on trade negotiations and government support policies will be key to making timely decisions.

What does the 90-day delay mean for the economy and the market? From a business perspective, what are the response strategies?

The 90-day delay in implementing retaliatory tariffs is a vital window for Vietnam, alleviating short-term pressure on exports and economic growth. It’s an opportunity for the government and businesses to negotiate lower tariffs—ideally from the proposed 46% down to around 10–20%—or to seek ways to rebalance trade. At the same time, it allows companies to adjust their strategies and reduce dependency on the U.S. market, which accounts for a significant portion of Vietnam’s exports.

Three response strategies could be considered:

First, ramp up bilateral dialogue with the U.S. and show goodwill by increasing imports of key American goods such as agricultural products, oil and gas, or technology equipment to help narrow the trade deficit. Simultaneously, tighten trade controls to prevent transshipment risks and ensure product origin compliance.

Second, Vietnamese businesses should diversify their export markets, leveraging free trade agreements like the CPTPP and EVFTA to pivot toward Europe, Japan, and ASEAN.

Third, Vietnam's economic structure will probably shift significantly in the near future, giving priority to industries that provide value to the global supply chain and spur future expansion. The government need to prioritize advancing the digital economy, fostering technical innovation, and fortifying the private sector. Fiscal actions including speeding up the distribution of public investments, extending VAT cuts to encourage consumption, and maybe reducing lending rates might aid companies and meet credit growth goals.