Two business scenarios for GMD

In the base-case scenario, GMD expects revenue to reach VND 4,850 billion, up 21.3% compared to the 2024 plan; and pre-tax profit from core business activities to reach VND 1,800 billion, a 33% increase. In the target scenario, projected revenue is VND 4,950 billion, up 23.8%, and pre-tax profit from core operations is expected to be VND 2,000 billion, up 48% compared to the 2024 plan.

Base-Case Scenario

GMD’s dual-scenario approach reflects its cautious stance amid a volatile business environment and potential risks that could directly affect its operations. At the same time, it shows internal determination and readiness to seize opportunities when conditions are favorable.

According to GMD estimates, business results for the first six months of the year have been positive and on track. Although the company has not yet released its semi-annual financial statements, GMD’s management has projected H1 2025 revenue at VND 2,760 billion, up 28%, and pre-tax profit at VND 1,100 billion, up 23% year-on-year. In Q2 2025 alone, revenue is estimated at VND 1,483 billion, up 29%, and pre-tax profit at VND 517 billion, a slight decrease of 0.5% compared to the same period last year.

Despite high Q2 revenue, the company is believed to have benefited in part from early cargo accumulation during the 90-day tax deferment period. This suggests that tariff policies and the fluctuating demand for import-export goods remain key risks for GMD in the second half of the year.

Experts also caution that the surge in goods storage demand earlier in the year may lead to weaker demand later in the year and around the Christmas and New Year seasons, placing exporters and major logistics firms like GMD in a “feast now, famine later” situation. Thus, the base-case scenario reflects a necessary level of prudence.

Ambitious Scenario

Nonetheless, GMD has both the resolve and the foundation to pursue an ambitious growth scenario. At the recent Annual General Meeting, GMD Chairman Mr. Đỗ Văn Nhân stated: “As long as the market remains stable and avoids a major crisis, the infrastructure upgrade projects, including Phase 3 of the Nam Dinh Vu project to be completed by year-end, which will increase capacity by 50%, along with the Gemalink 2A project and others, will ensure double-digit growth for GMD. Furthermore, with our operational capabilities, management experience, existing infrastructure, strategic port locations across the three regions of Vietnam, and strong financial base, the company is well-positioned for long-term growth.”

Specifically, GMD plans to maximize its operational capacity and efficiency across its integrated port-logistics ecosystem in 2025 and the years ahead. It will pursue joint ventures, expand its service network, standardize corporate governance and risk management practices, accelerate digital transformation, and aim to become one of Vietnam’s most efficient maritime companies.

In addition to expanding projects that are progressing well and reinforcing GMD’s service control in logistics, the company also plans to increase its stake in Hai Minh Port from 48.5% to at least 85%. GMD is also planning a series of capital restructuring activities. Notably, the company aims to divest from its rubber plantation project in 2025 to free up capital for reinvestment in its core businesses – port and logistics – and improve its ESG compliance. GMD also plans to sell 24% of its stake in Gemalink (GML) to a major shipping company. Both divestments are considered strategic rather than financially motivated.

In the long run, according to GMD CEO, Mr. Nguyễn Thanh Bình, partially divesting GML is part of a broader strategy to expand cooperation with large partners, bringing additional cargo to Gemalink Phase 2. The strategic partner is expected to synergize with GMD’s port-logistics ecosystem and broaden the company's development landscape. The company is currently working with potential partners to co-develop future projects.

In the short term, Vietcap notes that GMD’s 2025 business targets are lower than its forecast, with revenue reaching only about 93–95% of expectations, and core pre-tax profit achieving 80–90% of projected figures. The shortfall is mainly due to lower-than-expected revenue growth and thinner profit margins. This has also impacted GMD’s share price in the short term. In response, the company proposed a buyback of 21 million shares (5% of outstanding shares) to protect shareholder value should the P/B ratio fall below 1.5x – equivalent to a share price of about VND 45,200 or lower based on current book value. However, this scenario may no longer be necessary as GMD’s stock has rebounded and is currently trading above VND 60,000 per share.

In the long run, GMD’s determined strategy and proactive initiatives continue to position it as a promising port of call for global trade vessels, especially as macroeconomic conditions turn favorable.