Synchronous and sustainable management of gold trading activities

The State Bank of Viet Nam said it is urgently drafting a Decree amending and supplementing several articles of Decree No.24/2012/ND-CP dated April 3, 2012, on the management of gold trading activities according to simplified procedures.

According to the State Bank of Viet Nam, by the end of 2024, the difference between domestic and international SJC gold bar prices has been controlled and maintained at a suitable range, from a difference of about 25% at the peak to about 3 to 5 million VND/tael (equivalent to about 5 to 7%).

However, in the first months of 2025, it was recorded in the market that domestic gold prices continuously maintained a fairly high difference compared to world gold prices, up to 15 to 19 million VND/tael.

This is also a difference equivalent to the period before the State Bank began to synchronously deploy solutions to strengthen gold market management, handling the high difference between domestic and international gold bar prices under the direction of the Government and the Prime Minister.

Analysis from economic experts shows that the instability in the international financial market due to fluctuations in tariff policies of the US and other countries, especially the tense and escalating US-China trade war and the weakening of the USD, is and will push gold prices up.

Economic expert, Dr Nguyen Tri Hieu, assessed that the global gold market is currently experiencing strong fluctuations. In mid-April, the world gold price increased to more than 3,000 USD/ounce, and at this time, the gold price has reached more than 3,300 USD/ounce. In the domestic market, the gold price has reached 120 million VND/tael.

“This growth exceeds all predictions, even for me. This shows that domestic gold prices are strongly affected by fluctuations in world gold prices,” Dr Hieu said.

The State Bank also pointed out that in the first months of 2025, the world gold price continuously broke the previous record.

The main reason for the increase in the international gold price is due to political instability, military conflicts, and increasing strategic competition on a global scale, such as the prolonged Russia-Ukraine military conflict, followed by economic and political sanctions and retaliation between Russia and the US and its allies; military conflicts between Israel and Islamic countries and forces in the Middle East.

Along with that, many central banks and investment funds increased their gold purchases to supplement foreign exchange reserves, which is also an important reason for the increase in gold prices.

The announcement of high reciprocal tariffs by US President Donald Trump with countries around the world also negatively affected investor sentiment and world economic growth, causing investors’ cash flow to tend to flow into gold.

Domestically, the price of SJC gold bars fluctuated in the same direction as the world price. However, up to this point, the difference between domestic and world SJC gold bar prices has been converted to about VND 15 million/tael (equivalent to about 13.62%).

The reason why domestic SJC gold bar prices have increased at a faster rate than world gold prices and the difference between domestic and world SJC gold bar prices has increased sharply since the beginning of April 2025, according to the State Bank, is mainly due to the expectation that world gold prices will continue to increase in the context of the Trump Administration's tariff policies expected to negatively impact the global economy; the FED’s unpredictable monetary policy roadmap; tense world geopolitical developments; possible commodity price shocks that will increase demand for gold.

Since the beginning of 2025, the supply of gold bars on the market has not increased, and the foreign exchange market and the gold market have been relatively stable, so the State Bank has not had to intervene in the market. In addition to the above reasons, it is not excluded that some businesses and individuals are taking advantage of market fluctuations to speculate, inflate prices, and profit.

Although domestic gold prices have increased, according to the State Bank's view, these fluctuations have not yet affected the management of monetary policy and macroeconomic stability.

“The State Bank will continue to closely monitor developments in the domestic and international gold market, coordinate with relevant agencies to strengthen management and take measures to stabilise the gold market according to its authority,” the representative of the State Bank’s leadership affirmed.

In the coming time, the State Bank will continue to do a good job of communication to promptly provide information on policies, solutions, and policies to manage the gold market, and stabilise market psychology; At the same time, urgently develop a Decree amending and supplementing several articles of Decree No. 24/2012/NDCP dated April 3, 2012 according to simplified procedures; coordinate with relevant ministries and branches (Ministries of Public Security, Industry and Trade, Finance, etc.) to strengthen inspection and examination of the activities of gold trading enterprises, stores, agents distributing and trading gold bars and other entities participating in the market; promptly detect loopholes, inadequacies, and violations for strict handling.

The gold market has not yet been truly stable and sustainable, still affected by psychological factors, expectations, and potential risks affecting the currency and foreign exchange markets.

Therefore, in addition to solutions from the State Bank, to stabilise the gold market sustainably, there needs to be synchronous participation of ministries, branches, and localities under the direction of the Government and the Prime Minister.

Economic experts also pointed out that, by understanding the psychology of people rushing to buy when the gold price fluctuates, gold trading enterprises will increase the buying and selling price range, pushing the risk to consumers, and investors are likely to lose in the short term.

Therefore, Dr Nguyen Tri Hieu recommended that people regularly monitor the world and domestic gold markets before buying, and observe the difference in world and domestic gold prices to make the right decision.

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