Forecasts for a weaker US dollar through 2024 rest heavily not just on the Fed starting an easing cycle, but also that this cycle either causes, or is consistent with, a...
It is future total factor productivity (TFP) that’s key; not what’s happened in the past when it comes to currencies.
Momentum remains with the US dollar, and, while we do not see this as the long-term outlook, it is hard to argue against more strength in the short term.
History shows that a significant and sharp fall in US net savings is usually associated with a fall in the dollar.
The dollar index, which compares the dollar to its counterparts, experienced its highest increase since March 2020.
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