Viet Nam's seafood exports recover strongly

Growth in many seafood products

According to the report of the Viet Nam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), seafood exports in the first four months of 2025 recorded a strong recovery, reaching a turnover of 3.3 billion USD, up 21% over the same period in 2024. In April 2025 alone, the export turnover reached 850.5 million USD, up 10%. However, the export is uneven among products and markets, while the instability of US reciprocal tariffs is creating many challenges.

Shrimp continues to be the main product, contributing 1.27 billion USD in the first four months of the year, up 30% over the same period last year. In April alone, shrimp exports reached 330.8 million USD, up 15%. This growth comes from strong demand in major markets such as China, the EU and Japan, while shrimp prices are gradually recovering due to the global supply and demand rebalance. Pangasius, with a turnover of 632.7 million USD (up 9%), maintained its important position but grew slowly, especially in April, reaching only 167.7 million USD, no increase compared to the same period.

Tuna exports decreased in April (reaching 76.1 million USD, down 12%), although the cumulative four-month figure still rose slightly by 1% to 304.2 million USD. The shortage of raw materials, especially due to the regulation on minimum size of skipjack tuna, has limited production and export. In contrast, items such as tilapia and red tilapia grew dramatically 138% to 19 million USD, despite their small contribution. Molluscs (cephalopods, shellfish) and crabs also recorded impressive growth, with respective revenues of 216.4 million USD (up 18%), 83.1 million USD (up 82%), and 112.1 million USD (up 50%), thanks to high demand in China and ASEAN markets.

Exports to the US declined in April due to tariff disruption

According to VASEP, China was Viet Nam’s largest seafood export market in the first four months of 2025, with turnover reaching 709.8 million USD, a 56% increase. April exports to China stood at 182.3 million USD (up 29%), mainly due to demand for shrimp, crabs and molluscs in the premium segment. Japan ranked second with 536.6 million USD (up 22%), growing steadily thanks to value-added products. The EU and the Republic of Korea (RoK) also showed potential with respective turnover of 351.5 million USD (up 17%) and 264.1 million USD (up 15%) due to preferential tariff policies under the EVFTA.

However, the US market accounted for only 498.4 million USD (up 7%), with a 15% decline in April (120.5 million USD). This decline reflects the impact of the current reciprocal tariff policy from the US, disrupting export activities. ASEAN was a bright spot with 218.8 million USD (up 25%), while the Middle East decreased by 8% due to low consumption demand.

The US reciprocal tariff policy, with high anti-dumping tax rates (up to 46% for some products), is putting great pressure on Viet Nam's seafood exports. Items such as pangasius and shrimp, which are heavily dependent on this market, have been significantly affected. Tariffs increase product costs, leading many US importers to consider other sources of supply from other countries such as India and Ecuador. Technical barriers, such as food safety testing and strict traceability requirements, also reduce Viet Nam's competitive advantage.

However, the CPTPP and other FTAs ​​are helping Viet Nam minimise negative impacts by expanding its market to the EU, Japan, and ASEAN. Vietnamese businesses are also adjusting their strategies, focusing on value-added products and diversifying markets to reduce dependence on the US.

VASEP also forecasts that in May and June 2025, Viet Nam's seafood exports will shift strongly before the new US reciprocal tariff policy takes effect from July 9, 2025. Vietnamese businesses will focus on boosting exports to the US, especially key products such as shrimp and pangasius, to make the most of the period before new tariffs increase costs. Export turnover to this market is expected to increase by 10-15% compared to April 2025, thanks to hastily signed contracts and a price reduction strategy to maintain market share.

In contrast, exports to other markets such as China and ASEAN are likely to stagnate, with growth of only about 3-5%. The reason is the increasingly fierce competition from China’s seafood products, which are subject to high tariffs in the US and are forced to shift to the domestic market as well as neighbouring markets such as ASEAN. This competition will reduce the attractiveness of Vietnamese products, especially in the low-cost segment. The EU and Japan can maintain stable growth (at about 8-10%) thanks to advantages from free trade agreements, but this may not be sufficient to offset the stagnation in China and ASEAN markets.

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