Vietnam exports expected to grow further in 4Q24

Preliminary export turnover of goods in September 2024 reached USD 34.05 billion, down 9.9% compared to the previous month and up 10.7% compared to the same period last year. In 3Q24, preliminary export turnover reached USD 108.6 billion, up 15.8% compared to the same period last year and up 10.6% compared to the second quarter of 2024. In the first nine months of 2024, preliminary export turnover of goods reached USD 299.63 billion, up 15.4% over the same period last year. Of which, the domestic economic sector reached USD 83.47 billion, up 20.7%, accounting for 27.9% of total export turnover; the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) reached USD 216.16 billion, up 13.4%, accounting for 72.1%.

Regarding the structure of export goods in the first nine months of 2024, the group of preliminary processed industrial goods reached USD 263.47 billion, accounting for 87.9%. The United States is Vietnam's largest export market with an estimated turnover of USD 89.5 billion. China is Vietnam's largest import market with an estimated turnover of USD 105 billion.

The preliminary trade balance of goods in September had a trade surplus of USD 2.29 billion. In the first nine months of 2024, the preliminary trade balance of goods had a trade surplus of USD 20.79 billion (the same period last year had a trade surplus of USD 22.1 billion). Of which, the domestic economic sector had a trade deficit of USD 17.38 billion; the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) had a trade surplus of USD 38.17 billion.

For 4Q24, KB Securities Vietnam expects exports to maintain growth thanks to:

First, exports to the US, despite a mild decrease from the peak in July and August, still maintain positive growth thanks to sustainable consumer demand in this country. US retail sales in August recorded a 0.1% MoM and 2.1% YoY increase, indicating that consumer spending has not shown any signs of decline despite concerns over high consumer debts. In addition, the September unemployment rate continued to decline for the second consecutive month, dropping to 4.1% from 4.3% in July, which helped ease concerns about the risk of an economic recession.

Second, declining inflation has facilitated major central banks cutting interest rates, which will continue in 4Q24. Low CPI will help increase real household income, thereby boosting spending. Furthermore, reduced interest costs will help raise the demand for investment in expanding production of enterprises while increasing the room for short-term consumer debt and supporting spending.

Third, the bright prospects of the global semiconductor industry are giving opportunities to Vietnam's key exports. According to the forecast of WSTS, this figure will reach a record of USD588.36 billion in 2024 (13% YoY). Vietnam, with the advantages from many large enterprises such as Itel, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, and Technologies AG, is making use of this opportunity to boost the export of electronic products, smartphones, components and machinery, which account for 44% of the country's total export turnover.

On the other hand, KB Securities Vietnam notes some risks that may negatively impact export activities: geopolitical tensions leading to higher oil prices, transportation costs, and input costs for production; and central banks lowering interest rates more slowly than expected, affecting consumer demand in major countries.

Regarding risks related to the US election, KB Securities Vietnam believes that the election results and differences in trade policies of the two parties will not have a significant impact on Vietnam's export activities, based on: (i) The US-China trade war in 2018 - 2019 has caused US businesses to shift their import structure to Vietnam and some other countries (Figure 14). (ii) Both parties' policies promote investment in production to return to the US, but due to high production costs, moving production back to the US is unlikely to seriously threaten Vietnam's export products. (iii) If Donald Trump becomes President, he would impose a 60% tax on imported goods from China, a significantly higher rate than other countries (10%). This could be an opportunity for Vietnam to increase exports to the US market, but Vietnam needs to have appropriate solutions to minimize the risk of being accused of currency manipulation.