Vietnam’s exports are expected to rebound by year-end

Vietnam's exports saw further signs of recovery in August 2023.

>> Breakthrough in exports in the New Year 2023

Vietnam's exports saw further signs of recovery in August 2023. According to Vietnam Customs, Vietnam’s export turnover increased 9.0% mom (-6.7% yoy) to USD32.8bn, thus improving from a slight decrease of 0.2% mom (-2.2% yoy) in the previous month.

Some key export products of Vietnam witnessed positive changes in this month, including: electronic goods and computers edged up 4.3% mom (6.1% yoy); image and video cameras surged 78.1% mom (9.9% yoy); means of transport and components increased 5.2% mom (12.1% yoy).

On the other hand, disappointment was seen in some products, including: footwear (- 4.2% mom, -25.3% yoy); machines and equipment (3.6% mom, -19.5% yoy); and textiles (5.0% mom, -14.2% yoy). For 8M23, Vietnam’s export value climbed to US$228.2bn (-9.8% yoy).

“We expect Vietnam's exports to accelerate recovery in the remainder of 2023 due to (1) the fact that the U.S. economy grew more positively than economists expected, (2) the decrease in inventories and easing inflationary pressure in developed countries will stimulate demand for Vietnam's exports, and (3) the cycle of replacing old smartphones with newer ones is 25.3 months, or about 2 years (according to research by the China Mobile Terminal Lab), which will be boosted”, said Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, senior analyst at VNDirect.

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The recovery of imports is an early signal for the recovery of manufacturing and exports in the coming months. Imports see their fourth month in a row of month-on-month recovery amid stronger demand for imported raw materials, capital goods, and intermediate products.

According to Vietnam Customs, Vietnam’s import spending rose 8.2% mom (-7.2% yoy) to US$29.3bn in August 2023, thus improving from an increase of 2.8% mom (-10.6% yoy) in July 2023. In which, the import of intermediate goods (for production activities) rose by 12.3% mom (0.7% yoy), while the import of capital goods increased by 4.3% mom (-7.9% yoy). In addition, the imports of consumer goods increased by 6.7% mom (-8.4% yoy).

On the contrary, the import of raw materials decreased by 3.1% mom (-24.0% yoy) on August 2023. For the 8 months of 2023, Vietnam’s import spending climbed to US$208.3bn (-15.9% yoy). Regarding trade balance, Vietnam net exported US$19.9bn in the 8 months of 2023, 3.7x over the same period last year.