Vietnam’s trade activities head toward a new record

Export turnover in October amounted to USD 42.05bn (-1.5% mom). Notably, shipments to the U.S., Vietnam's largest market, fell 2.2% compared to September, marking the third consecutive monthly drop. Notably, several key products recorded the largest declines, including phones of all kinds and their parts (-15.2% mom) and textiles & garments (-7% mom).

However, compared to the same period last year, exports marked a year-on-year increase of 17.5%, driven by strong growth in several key categories, including toys, sports equipment & their parts (180% yoy); electronic goods, computers & their parts (65.6% yoy); cameras, camcorders & their components (23.5% yoy). Of which, the export value from the foreign-invested sector reached nearly USD 33.5bn (31.8% yoy), accounting for 80% of the total export turnover in the month. Meanwhile, the domestic economic sector recorded negative growth for the sixth consecutive month, with a decline of 17.4% in October, and an export value of USD 8.6bn, making up 20% of the total export turnover.

Cumulatively, in 10M25, export turnover reached USD 391bn (16.2% yoy), with notable increases in items such as: Toys, sports equipment & parts (139.7% yoy); electronics, computers & components (47.9% yoy); electrical wire and cable (25.4% yoy). On the other hand, some commodities experienced sharp declines, including iron & steel (-29.1% yoy); rice (-24.7% yoy); plastic materials (-14.5% yoy).

In terms of export markets, the U.S. remained Vietnam’s largest export market, with an estimated turnover of USD 126.2bn (27.6% yoy). Subsequently, this brought Vietnam's trade surplus with the U.S. in the first 10 months of 2025 to USD 111bn. Export turnover to China also showed positive signs, reaching USD 57bn (13.8% yoy)—significantly higher than the 2.1% growth recorded in the same period last year. Meanwhile, exports to the EU increased by 8.3% yoy to USD 46.5bn.

On the import side, October’s turnover dipped by 1% mom to an estimated USD 39.45bn (16.8% yoy). This resulted in total imports of 10M25 reaching USD 371.44bn (18.6% yoy). China remained Vietnam’s largest import partner, accounting for 40.6% of total imports, with imports valued at USD 150.9bn (28.1% yoy). Besides, imports from the U.S. also witnessed significantly growth of 23.8% yoy, reaching USD 15.2bn. During this period, four product groups exceeded USD 10bn in import value, accounting for 52.7% of total imports, including: electronics, computers & components (39.1% yoy); machinery, instrument & accessory (24.5% yoy); plastic materials (7.8% yoy); fabrics (1.7% yoy).

Despite volatile global trade conditions, Vietnam's export activities still achieved impressive growth of 16.2% in the first 10 months of the year. Against this backdrop, the Ministry of Industry and Trade estimates that total import-export turnover this year could reach a new record of USD 900bn.

Based on the impressive results in the first 10 months of the year, MBS forecasts that exports will increase by 15% - 17% in 2025. This is supported by signs of a slight recovery in international demand, as the S&P PMI report shows that new export orders in October increased for the first time in over a year. Additionally, the easing of tariff tensions is expected to create a more stable environment for trade activities in the coming period. Thus, export activities are projected to remain robust in the final two months of the year, especially as this is the peak export season. However, tariff-related risks have not been fully eliminated, as the U.S. has yet to provide clear definitions for “transshipment goods.”

On the import side, activities from key markets such as China, South Korea, etc. are expected to remain stable through the end of the year. This, combined with the continued increase in import value from the U.S.—as Vietnam is likely to continue boosting imports of U.S. goods with tariff rates approaching 0% to demonstrate goodwill in narrowing the trade surplus with this nation—will drive the growth momentum of import turnover this year. Based on these factors, MBS estimates Vietnam’s imports will surge by 17% - 18% in 2025. Consequently, the trade surplus for 2025 is projected to reach approximately USD 25bn.