Vietnam's exports to US projected to reach $130bn in 2025

Vietnam's trade with the US is expected to experience robust growth, with export projections reaching between US$125 billion and US$130 billion in  2025, according to the Department of Export-Import under the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT).

Key export items, including textiles, wooden handicrafts, electronics and agricultural products, are likely to maintain positive growth trajectories, the ministry said.

The shrimp processing factory of Minh Phu Seafood Corporation in Ca Mau Province. Photo: Vietnam News Agency

The textile industry is forecast to reach $25 billion in exports, driven by demand for high-quality, eco-friendly products. The wood crafts sector is on track to reach $10 billion, with growth of more than 20% from 2024, driven by the trend towards sustainable furniture.

High-tech products, such as electronic components and telecommunications equipment, will also contribute significantly to export figures, which are expected to grow by 15 to 18% due to production expansions by companies such as Samsung, Intel and LG.

The state agency said the agriculture and seafood sector, including key products such as shrimp, catfish and cashews, will exceed $7 billion in exports. Consistent product quality and compliance with strict US food safety standards are critical to sustaining this growth.

In addition, commodities such as rubber and steel are predicted to maintain steady growth as they play an important role in the U.S. industrial supply chain.

Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director of the Department of Export-Import, said that in 2024, the US remains Vietnam’s second-largest trade partner and the largest export market. Vietnam is the eighth largest trading partner of the US and the fourth largest export market in ASEAN.

Total trade turnover between Vietnam and the US reached $134.6 billion, an increase of 21.5%. Vietnam exported $119.6 billion to the US, up 23.3%, while it imported $15 billion, up 8.8%, the General Statistics Office said.

Addressing trade deficits

The first shipment of Vietnamese pomelo to the US. Photo: Labor Newspaper

The Department of Export-Import has predicted that exports to the US will experience significant fluctuations this year due to the new trade policies of President Donald Trump. In order to achieve their export targets, Vietnamese businesses will have to overcome significant challenges, particularly trade defence measures.

The department's deputy director said a scenario had been developed to maintain and boost exports to the US through 2025. Under an optimistic scenario in which the US maintains its current tax policy on Vietnamese goods, Southeast Asia could attract investment to boost exports amid shifting supply chains.

However, a second scenario involving higher tariffs could affect the global economy and Vietnam's export performance. In addition, if China - a major trading partner of the US - faces challenges due to tariffs, it could put pressure on Vietnam. In such cases, the MoIT may seek government support for businesses to diversify their markets, he added.

Do Ngoc Hung, Trade Counselor and Head of the Vietnam Trade Office in the US, emphasized that Vietnamese exporters must  prioritize trade compliance to avoid investigations and possible tariffs or trade remedies from the US.

World Trade Organization (WTO) data show that the United States is currently the world leader in conducting trade defense investigations and taking safeguard actions. It has initiated 64 investigations against Vietnamese exports out of a total of 267 foreign cases (25%), including 28 anti-dumping, 11 countervailing, 22 anti-circumvention and 3 safeguard cases.

Ta Hoang Linh, Director General of the MoIT's European-American Market Department, said that the US is an important and promising market for Vietnamese goods. However, Vietnam's current export structure mainly consists of products from foreign-invested enterprises, such as mobile phones, electronic components, computers, transport vehicles, textiles, and footwear. As a result, Vietnamese enterprises need to focus on improving product quality, meeting standards, and increasing local content, he recommended.

Le Hang of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers advised that seafood products must fully comply with FDA (US Food and Drug Administration) regulations, including hygiene, food safety and disease prevention standards. To meet the growing demands of the US market, she also stressed the importance of ensuring sustainable production and strict quality control from farming to processing.

Vietnam's import and export business could be affected by Donald Trump's presidency, according to economist Dinh Trong Thinh. Trump's approach puts America first, which could lead to higher import taxes for certain countries. In order to boost exports to the US market in 2025, Vietnamese businesses must therefore step up their efforts to seize opportunities and overcome obstacles, he said.