VN-Index extends rally, bank stocks on radar

The day’s session coincided with the groundbreaking and inauguration of 250 national projects and key works worth a total of VND 1.2 quadrillion, launched to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the August Revolution and Vietnam’s National Day (September 2, 1945 – September 2, 2025). Many of these projects involve private enterprises and are expected to “shift the paradigm” of national infrastructure, serving as a major growth lever for the economy.

The upbeat sentiment carried over to the stock market. The VN-Index gained 17.83 points (1.09%) to close at 1,654.2, while the HNX-Index rose 2.58 points (0.91%) to 286.45 and the UPCoM-Index advanced 0.81 points (0.74%) to 109.78. Market liquidity was robust, with nearly VND 60 trillion traded.

Bank stocks were the main driver of gains. VPB hit its ceiling price and closed with an unfilled buy order of nearly 12 million shares. Other major risers included LPB (6.7%), HDB (6.6%), TPB (5.5%), ACB (5.2%), BAB (4%), TCB (3.3%), PGB (2.5%), CTG (2.3%), BVB (2%), EIB (2%), and VIB (2%).

VPBank (VPB) attracted attention with speculation that its securities arm, VPBankS, may launch an IPO as early as Q4 2025. Techcombank (TCB) and its securities subsidiary TCBS also remained hot topics amid IPO plans and attractive valuations.

HDBank (HDB) gained momentum on the same day as it inaugurated the Saigon Marina International Financial Center Tower, with Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc expressing hopes it would become a symbol of integration and elevate Ho Chi Minh City’s role as a regional financial hub.

Analysts’ Views

Banking stocks are expected to continue leading the market thanks to multiple tailwinds. Nguyen The Minh, Director of Analysis at Yuanta Vietnam, noted that a low interest rate environment remains supportive. Although the VN-Index’s trailing P/E has approached its 10-year average of 15x, he believes the market can sustain higher valuations given: Reduced tariff risks; GDP growth forecast of 7.4%; Credit growth projected above 17%; Catalysts from a potential market upgrade; a return of foreign inflows.

While financial services stocks are fully valued, banks and real estate still offer upside. Minh highlighted that the sector’s P/B remains below its 5-year average, with Q3 credit growth and property market recovery serving as key catalysts. His top bank picks: TCB, MBB, CTG, HDB, and ACB.

Agriseco Securities projects overall market earnings to grow about 20% in 2025, with VN-Index reaching 1,700–1,750 by year-end. Its strategy report highlights Fed rate-cut expectations starting September, Vietnam’s growth target of 8.3–8.5%, strong credit expansion, fiscal stimulus, and accelerated public investment. Agriseco’s top stock picks include VCG, HPG, NLG, KDH, TCB, BID, CTG, HCM, SSI, and MWG.

Bank Stock Highlights

Agriseco recommended investors to pick the following stocks.

First, TCB is a leader in retail and property financing, with loan growth forecast to exceed 20% by 2025. Low interest rates, a resurgence in the housing market, and higher net interest margins all help.

Second, BID's credit growth is expected to reach 16%, asset quality is increasing, and charter capital will be raised to VND 91.9 trillion. Dividend payouts from stock and private placements are also catalysts.

Third, CTG is expected to reach net interest income of VND 70.8 trillion (15% year on year), improve ROA/ROE, and increase retail lending.

Meanwhile, Maybank Securities (MSVN) reported that the banking sector delivered 16% y/y profit growth in Q2, lifting H1 growth to 13%. Annualized ROE stands at 18.2%, with CTG, SHB, and VPB among the best performers.

“Maybank remains positive on Vietnam’s banking sector, given strong credit growth and returns on equity,” said Quan Trong Thanh, Head of Research at MSVN. “Our top picks: Long-term holds – MBB, TCB; Trading plays – SHB, HDB, TPB, CTG, and VCB.”