Vn-Index poised to break 1,600-point barrier

Last week, the market rose for five consecutive sessions despite persistent profit-taking pressure. The VN-Index gained nearly 90 points, closing at 1,585 points, a new record. Robust capital inflows pushed the average daily trading value on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange to around VND50.6 trillion (US$2 billion), with a record-high session reaching VND78.12 trillion ($3.1 billion).

According to most brokerage houses, investors still hold substantial cash reserves waiting to be deployed, which could sustain both liquidity and index growth in the near term.

Yuanta Vietnam Securities forecasts the index may continue rising today toward the 1,600–1,650 resistance range.

“While short-term corrections and a retest of the 1,565 support level remain possible, it is expected to be brief given the market’s clear upward trend,” stated Yuanta’s report.

The firm’s analysts note that short-term sentiment indicators are still improving, keeping profit-making opportunities high. They recommend maintaining a high equity exposure for short-term holdings of less than one month.

Tien Phong Securities (TPS) shares a similar view, projecting the VN-Index to reach 1,614–1,645 points in early-week sessions, representing a 30–45 point increase from the reference level.

In its latest market update, ACB Securities also projects a continued rally, citing high liquidity as a sign of strong and sustainable demand. Alongside broad-based capital flows, positive investor sentiment is seen as a key driver toward the next resistance zone.

However, analysts caution that momentum has slowed, with gains over the last two sessions at just 0.5% and 0.2%, suggesting that 1,600 points a short-term profit-taking threshold. If liquidity remains intact, any pullbacks could be viewed as healthy corrections within a medium- to long-term uptrend.

Historically, at key psychological milestones, the index often corrects sharply for one or two sessions before attracting new inflows and resuming its climb.

Saigon – Hanoi Securities (SHS) notes growing market divergence due to tightened margin lending limits. Stocks that have surged recently are hitting borrowing caps, making them less appealing to new capital and softening price momentum. Conversely, stocks with modest gains and strong earnings are likely to attract fresh buying.

Many analysts advise against chasing prices, instead recommending partial profit-taking in stocks showing strong selling at high price zones. Investors may rotate funds into stocks entering an uptrend after a prolonged consolidation or those forming a new base following a correction.

Meanwhile, experts at VPBankS suggest holding existing positions, with the option to lock in partial profits if the VN-Index approaches or exceeds 1,600–1,620 points without stronger liquidity. For new entries, they recommend waiting for intraday pullbacks to trade large-cap banking and securities stocks on a short-term T basis.