What outlook for IDC?

IDC is one of the largest industrial real estate developers in Vietnam, with commercial IP land reserves ready for lease across both the northern and southern regions in 2025.

A Slowdown in Land Leasing Activity

Although IDC has a sizable commercial IP land bank, company leaders shared during a recent investor meeting that in the first nine months of 2025, IDC recorded IP land leasing volume of 55.4 hectares, lower than the 65.1 hectares in the same period last year and reaching only around 50% of its annual target of 123.5 hectares.

In the third quarter of 2025 alone, leasing volume was 7.6 hectares, down 23% year-on-year. Leasing activity for the 9-month period by project included:

• 16.0 ha at Que Vo 2,
• 14.3 ha at Huu Thanh,
• 13.0 ha at Cau Nghin,
• 7.1 ha at Phu My 2 Expansion,
• 5.0 ha at Phu My 2.

IDC’s subdued leasing performance during the first nine months of the year reflects the impact of tariff-related policy developments—a trend that diverges from the still-positive registered FDI inflows into Vietnam.

The slowdown affected IDC’s business results: revenue in the first nine months reached VND 6.4 trillion, down 7%, while after-tax profit came in at VND 1,814 billion, a 10% drop year-on-year. Industrial parks remained the main revenue contributor at VND 2.6 trillion, down 22%, accounting for 41% of total revenue. Estimated cash flow from IPs in the period decreased 27% year-on-year to VND 2.9 trillion, though the gross margin of 63.4% exceeded expectations.

In addition, the real estate segment generated VND 340 billion in revenue, down 31% in the first nine months of 2025, mainly from backlog recognition at the Bac Chau Giang IP project in Ninh Binh. Meanwhile, IDC’s financial income and other net income exceeded forecasts, thanks to higher-than-expected deposit interest and other extraordinary gains. On a quarterly basis, IDC still posted positive revenue growth in Q3 compared to the same period last year, as some leasing contracts met the requirements for one-time revenue recognition—a typical accounting feature of the industrial real estate sector.

Positioned for Long-Term Growth

According to Brian Lee ShunRong, an economist at Maybank IBG (Malaysia), FDI investors normally require significant preparation time for their investment plans. Therefore, unless policy risks—such as tariff levels—become excessively unfavorable (which has not been the case for Vietnam), once investment plans are set, they are unlikely to change abruptly. This pattern is evident among major IP developers with ready-to-lease land in strategic locations.

IDC’s management noted that in October, several tenants who had previously paused negotiations due to tariff uncertainties have now resumed discussions. As a result, the situation improved in October, with IDC signing several medium-sized land lease contracts or memorandums (5–10 hectares).

Management stated that IDC will begin construction of Vinh Quang IP–Phase 1 (Hai Phong, 226 ha) and Tan Phuoc 1 IP (Dong Thap, 415 ha) in Q1/2026. IDC has completed land clearance for more than 160 hectares of Vinh Quang Phase 1 and targets completing compensation for Tan Phuoc 1 within 2025.

According to Ms. Luu Bich Hong, Senior Analyst at Vietcap Securities, IDC may see a stronger recovery between Q4/2025 and 2026, supported by a low base in Q2–Q3/2025 as tariff-related disruptions gradually fade. Investor sentiment recovery, clearer policy implementation, and upcoming new IP projects are expected to boost leasing. However, Vietcap also notes potential downside risks to IDC’s leasing forecasts for 2025–2026, pending further clarity.

Beyond industrial real estate, IDC also has a residential real estate segment. The company aims to break ground in Q1/2026 for two projects:

• Huu Thanh Residential & Worker Housing (47 ha, Long An),
• Worker Housing at Nhon Trach IP (Dong Nai, approx. 3,500 units).
  Both projects are awaiting construction permits, with sales expected to start in 2026.

Shinhan Vietnam notes that Vietnam continues to maintain strong attractiveness and competitive advantages for FDI inflows. In the North, Vietnam benefits from the “China 1” trend, where proximity to the Chinese border offers logistical advantages and supports IP developers in attracting more investors, particularly from China.

Meanwhile, the southern region features a more diversified investor base, with a notable presence of U.S. and Western companies.

With industrial real estate as its core business, a sizable ready-to-lease land bank, and continued expansion across both northern and southern regions, IDC is well positioned to meet investor demand across geographies. As a result, IDC holds significant potential to maintain strong growth in the coming years.