What sectors will attract foreign capital amid Vietnam stock upgrade?

On the HOSE exchange, foreign investors purchased 678 million shares, equivalent to a total value of VND 20,118 billion. Meanwhile, on HNX, net purchases reached 10.4 million shares, worth VND 201 billion.

Among the most heavily bought stocks on HOSE was VPB, with 31.4 million shares acquired, amounting to a net value of VND 654 billion. Following closely was SSI, with 18.7 million shares bought for VND 582 billion, bringing the total net purchases of SSI stock since early July to more than VND 3,230 billion.

On the HNX exchange, CEO was the most favored stock in terms of value, with VND 116 billion in net foreign buying (5.8 million shares), while SHS led in volume with 6.5 million shares traded, worth VND 104 billion. Since the beginning of July, financial, securities, and real estate stocks have been the main targets of foreign inflows. Other blue chips such as VIC, VRE, and VHM have also drawn considerable interest from foreign investors.

After selling over VND 37,000 billion on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange in the first seven months of the year, foreign investors are now returning to the market. They have recently executed 12 consecutive net-buying sessions, pouring over VND 15,000 billion into Vietnamese equities.

According to VPBankS Securities, this renewed interest stems from expectations that Vietnam's stock market will be upgraded to emerging market status by September 2025. Historical data from Bloomberg shows that foreign capital typically increases by five to seven times compared to the pre-upgrade period once a market is officially reclassified.

Analysts note that international markets often see significant growth one to two years prior to being officially upgraded. For instance, Qatar’s market rose by 45%, Saudi Arabia’s by 23%, and Romania’s by 18% ahead of their reclassifications. VPBankS estimates that between $3 billion and $7 billion could flow into Vietnam’s market once the upgrade takes effect. A sudden surge of foreign investment would serve as a major catalyst for the market’s growth.

Vietcap Securities forecasts that Vietnam could attract $6–8 billion in foreign capital upon being reclassified as an emerging market. SSI expects the country to draw about $1 billion from ETFs alone, not including capital from actively managed funds. The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF is projected to allocate over $363 million to Vietnam.

Analysts at SSI anticipate that stocks like VIC and VHM could receive foreign inflows of $161 million and $119 million respectively, with other blue chips such as MSN, VNM, HPG, VCB, and SSI also expected to benefit. SSI shares alone could attract between $50 million and $90 million. Typically, foreign funds prioritize investments in stocks already included in the FTSE Vietnam Index.

Vietnam currently meets seven out of the nine criteria needed to move from frontier market to emerging market status, as defined by FTSE Russell. SSI believes the country is close to fulfilling the remaining two: the transaction settlement cycle and costs related to failed trades.

In recent months, the Ministry of Finance has implemented several reforms to facilitate foreign investor activity and align with the FTSE’s evaluation criteria. The State Securities Commission also plans to implement a central counterparty (CCP) clearing mechanism by 2027 and has strengthened its legal and technical infrastructure to communicate with rating agencies and foreign investors about the current state and potential of Vietnam’s market.

Experts believe there is a 90% chance that Vietnam will be officially reclassified by the end of this year, with a 10% possibility of the announcement being delayed until March 2026 if further monitoring is needed regarding settlement timing, distribution practices, and handling of failed transactions.

If Vietnam’s upgrade is confirmed in September 2025, this will mark a prime opportunity for investors to accumulate stocks likely to benefit from the upgrade theme. The securities sector, in particular, could see increased revenues from trading fees, margin lending, and proprietary trading gains.

Currently, the VN-Index trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14, slightly higher than the three-year average of 13.5 but still 17% lower than the peak of 16.9 recorded in Q4 2021. This suggests that market valuations—especially for large-cap stocks—remain attractive when compared with corporate earnings growth and the expected market upgrade.

In the second half of 2025, according to MBS, capital is likely to shift towards large-cap stocks that have yet to see significant price increases. These stocks are favored for their appealing valuations and earnings potential. Under a base-case scenario, with listed companies projected to grow earnings by 17%, and market P/E ratios ranging from 13.5 to 13.8, MBS expects the VN-Index to reach between 1,500 and 1,540 points by year-end.

This projection is bolstered by a recent U.S. policy shift that favors Vietnam more than its regional peers, further reinforcing the likelihood of an upgrade and a renewed inflow of foreign capital. This capital is expected to concentrate in large-cap stocks, especially those with remaining room for foreign ownership.

MBS considers selective stock-picking among large caps the most viable strategy for both institutional and retail investors for the remainder of the year. In terms of investment themes, MBS identifies residential real estate, public investment, and financial services as areas with high return potential.

Residential real estate is on the rebound, aided by legal reforms and low interest rates that are reigniting housing demand. Promising stocks in this space include DXG, DIG, CEO, and NLG. Additionally, with over VND 500,000 billion in public investment expected to be disbursed in the second half of the year, companies like VCG, HHV, HPG, and HSG are well positioned to benefit from this spending wave.

With monetary policy continuing to ease, banking and financial service providers are forecast to grow as capital costs decline and credit demand recovers. Standout stocks include VCB, VPB, and MBB.

To ride the upgrade wave in 2025–2026, MBS has identified a core portfolio of 22 stocks across diverse sectors such as finance, technology, energy, real estate, and consumer goods. Stocks like VCB, VPB, GMD, VCG, HHV, HPG, DXG, HDG, NLG, and CEO are all viewed positively in terms of business outlook and price growth potential in the coming upgrade cycle.