Dual growth drivers for MSN

Profit Margins and Foreign Capital Potential

MSN, together with VIC, VHM, HPG, and VCB, is among the five leading stocks expected to be included in the FTSE Emerging Markets All Cap Index once Vietnam’s stock market is upgraded.

Adding to its long-term appeal, SK Investment Vina I Pte. Ltd. (a subsidiary of SK Group) has recently divested 76 million MSN shares, ceasing to be a major foreign shareholder.

At its Annual General Meeting on April 25, 2025, MSN shareholders approved the removal of the 49% foreign ownership cap, aligning with Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP. For unrestricted business lines, this effectively opens the door to full foreign ownership. As of September 9, 2025, the foreign ownership ratio stood at only 24.92%, leaving significant headroom for foreign inflows following Vietnam’s market upgrade.

In addition, the market is anticipating a major milestone—the planned transfer of Masan Consumer (UPCoM: MCH) from UPCoM to HoSE in Q4 2025 or early 2026.

This listing move is expected to help MSN revalue its assets. Once on HoSE, MCH’s market capitalization could surpass several VN30 constituents such as SAB and MWG, bringing added value to MSN’s own valuation.

Growth Momentum Ahead

As the “golden goose” contributing a major share of MSN’s consolidated revenue and profit, MCH is forecast to maintain strong growth in late 2025 and 2026, supported by an improving retail environment and a rebound in domestic consumption.

Retail demand through modern channels continues to rise amid stricter enforcement against counterfeit goods, benefiting WinCommerce’s ongoing expansion strategy. The company is also pushing higher-end product lines, diversifying across billion-dollar segments for both domestic and export markets under its Go Global vision.

Beyond its leadership in Vietnam’s FMCG sector, MSN’s integrated retail ecosystem gives it a strong competitive edge—deep consumer access, better market insights, and lower intermediary costs.

WinCommerce (WCM) operates Vietnam’s largest modern retail network, accounting for roughly 20% of total modern trade revenue—a key advantage also supporting Masan MEAT Deli (UPCoM: MML).

According to SHS projections:

• MCH 2025 revenue: VND 33,039 billion (6.93%)
• MML 2025 revenue: VND 8,753 billion (14.42%)
• WCM 2025 revenue: VND 37,970 billion (15.32%)
• Phuc Long (PLH) 2025 revenue: VND 1,864 billion (15%)
  Including earnings from associate Techcombank (TCB), MSN’s consolidated 2025 revenue is forecast at VND 87,968 billion, with net profit reaching VND 5,880 billion, up 37.6% year-on-year.

MML stands to benefit from rising pork prices amid recent storm disruptions, while MHT (Masan High-Tech Materials) is likely to post stronger results thanks to surging tungsten prices—driven by U.S.–China trade tensions and rare-earth supply shortages. As the world’s leading tungsten supplier outside China, MHT could see an even greater boost if tariff tensions escalate after November 1.

Using a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, SHS estimates MSN’s fair value at VND 98,300 per share, implying an 18.3% upside from its closing price on October 9, 2025.