Navigating global trade: Vietnam’s strategies for export success in 2025

Late 2024 marks a period when export enterprises are busy with existing orders and preparations for the new year.

International Sales Channel Manager Nguyen Van at HUCAFOOD shares that after researching and understanding consumer preferences in the Republic of Korea and China, the company introduced instant coffee products with durian and coconut flavors. After seven years of persistent market penetration, the company now exports approximately 30 containers of these products monthly.

Meanwhile, Tan Quang Minh Manufacturing and Trading Co. Ltd. is targeting the rapidly expanding Halal market, projected to surpass US$10 trillion by 2028. Demand for Halal products is rising globally, including in major non-Muslim economies like China, Japan, the US, and Europe, due to stringent food safety standards and growing preference for sustainable products.

The Southeast Asia, South Asia, and South Pacific regions, geographically close to Vietnam, house 860 million Muslim consumers (accounting for 66 percent of the global Muslim population), with Halal food consumption estimated at $500 billion. This lucrative market is a key focus for Vietnamese exporters.

Assessing export market potential for 2025, businesses indicate that Vietnam continues to significantly increase export turnover to the US, China, EU, ASEAN, and the common Halal market. Additionally, several other markets, despite currently limited Vietnamese export market share, will maintain positive growth rates.

“This confidence is entirely warranted, based on what businesses have and continue to achieve in 2024,” affirms Deputy Director Pham Binh An of the HCMC Institute for Development Studies (HIDS).

Take the US market as an example. In the first 11 months of 2024, export turnover reached an estimated $100 billion, a 24.2-percent increase compared to the previous year. Based on this growth momentum, exports to the US in 2025 are forecast to continue robust growth, maintaining double-digit rates. Supporting factors include increased consumer demand for items such as furniture, seafood, and textiles, along with Vietnam maintaining its position as a crucial US trading partner.

In the first 11 months of 2024, Vietnam’s exports to China reached $55.98 billion, a 6.2-percent year-on-year rise. Notably, vegetable and fruit exports to this buyer reached $3.4 billion, a 2.6-fold increase (equivalent to $2.1 billion) compared to this time last year. Furthermore, signed protocols and the availability of Vietnamese fruits on Chinese e-commerce platforms will further boost exports. Therefore, stable export growth to China is projected for 2025.

Additionally, the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) is projected to stimulate a 42.7 percent rise in Vietnam’s exports to the EU market by 2025. The ASEAN market is expected to maintain average growth of 17.1 percent.

Many businesses suggest that implementing tailored strategies for specific market segments, particularly those with distinct cultural characteristics, will enable brands to attract a wider customer base.

Vinamilk representatives stated that Halal certification is the essential first step for entering the Halal market. Director Tran Phu Lu of the HCMC Investment and Trade Promotion Center affirmed that Halal standards and regulations are becoming increasingly stringent. Halal certification is not perpetual, and individual markets may impose additional specific standards, posing challenges for businesses seeking to participate in this substantial market.

Currently, approximately 50 Vietnamese companies receive Halal certification annually for products primarily including seafood, beverages, canned food, confectionery, vegetarian food, and pharmaceuticals. If effectively leveraged, more Vietnamese export businesses can confidently engage in the Halal product market.

For other major export markets, businesses will face higher quality standard barriers. For example, the US imposes stringent quality, food safety, and environmental standards. Notably, the seafood, furniture, and textile sectors must comply with rigorous regulations such as the Lacey Act (for timber) and import product inspection standards. Trade remedies, particularly anti-dumping and anti-subsidy lawsuits against Vietnamese exports, are also persistent concerns.

China increasingly tightens regulations on import quality, including phytosanitary requirements and labeling demands. Vietnamese enterprises also face intense competition from domestic businesses and other exporting countries, particularly in sectors like agriculture, seafood, and electronics.

For the EU market, strict regulations on environment, labor, and food safety require export products to meet intra-bloc origin requirements or demonstrate high added value, sustainability, social responsibility, and green development – presenting significant pressure for domestic businesses.

Regarding new markets, particularly in Africa, the Middle East, and South America, businesses face financial and political risks beyond the aforementioned factors. Additional elements such as increased logistics costs, declining global market purchasing power, and growing sustainability requirements necessitate investment in environmentally friendly technology and production processes.

Deputy Director Pham Binh An emphasizes market diversification, targeting regions like Africa, the Middle East, and South America, and leveraging FTAs for tariff benefits and market access. Identifying potential markets and their associated challenges is crucial for developing an effective export strategy and sustainable economic growth in 2025. Businesses must invest in technology and production to meet international standards and enhance global competitiveness.