Outlook for property sector earnings

Subdued property market

Interest rates continued to rise sharply in Q2/26, with banks' deposit rates increasing by 1.0–1.5 ppts QoQ. As a result, mortgage rates for the property sector climbed to 13– 14%, up approximately 2 ppts YoY. Several newly launched projects, including Masterise Lumière Hanoi, Vinhomes Ha Long Xanh, and Vin Can Gio, introduced financing packages offering fixed interest rates of 7–8% for the first two years to mitigate higher borrowing costs.

MBS said, despite these incentives, property market liquidity remained weak as investors grew increasingly concerned that interest rates would stay elevated for an extended period. On the supply side, listed developers continued to prioritize the execution of existing projects rather than expanding their land banks. In addition, investors adopted a wait-and-see approach ahead of the release of Hanoi's 100-year master plan, seeking greater clarity on areas expected to benefit from the new planning framework.

As a result, market liquidity slowed significantly, while selling prices softened in Q2/26. MBS estimates that transaction prices at selected condominium projects declined by approximately 5% QoQ. It expects interest rates to remain elevated through H2/26. However, the continued rollout of major infrastructure projects should provide a structural growth catalyst for the property market over the longer term.

Developers focused on project handovers

New sales remained subdued across listed developers in Q2/26, with most new launches coming from Vinhomes' township projects, including Ha Long Xanh, Can Gio, and Hai Van Bay. MBS believes challenging market conditions could result in lower absorption rates for new launches compared with the 2024–25 period. Meanwhile, developers such as NLG, KDH, and DXG delayed new launches amid weak demand driven by higher borrowing costs.

As a result, Q2/26 earnings were largely supported by handovers from a limited number of previously launched projects, including Waterpoint (NLG), Gem Sky World (DXG), and Gladia (KDH), leading to YoY declines in net profit for these developers. In contrast, VHM reported 11% YoY net profit growth, supported by handovers at Green Paradise, Wonder City, and Green City.

MBS observes that developers remain cautious on new launches. Mid-sized developers are increasingly focusing on projects targeting end-user demand, particularly apartment developments, rather than large-scale townships. In H2/26, key expected launches include Mizuki Park (NLG), The Privé (DXG), and Gladia (KDH).

Property sector earnings forecast

As for VHM, MBS expects 2Q26 net profit to reach VND 8,377 billion, up 11% YoY, supported by continued earnings recognition from Green Paradise, Wonder City, and Green City.

VRE's 2Q26 operating performance is expected to remain stable, supported by high occupancy across its retail mall portfolio and improving tenant traffic. MBS forecasts net profit of VND 1,215bn, down slightly by 1% YoY, reflecting the resilient retail leasing business amid moderate consumer spending growth.

MBS expects DXG's net profit to hit VND 70 billion, down 14% YoY due to fewer handovers at Gem Sky World and a 3 ppt contraction in the project's gross margin on lower ASP. Meanwhile, brokerage revenue is projected to fall 10% YoY amid softer market liquidity.

NLG’s bet profit is forecasted by MBS to reach VND 80 billion, down 19% YoY as the weak property market resulted in fewer handovers at the Waterpoint project.