Q3/2025 corporate earnings: Divergent performance and weakening core growth

Non-financials Lead Earnings Growth

Market-wide profit after tax rose sharply by 41.8% YoY in Q3/2025, led by the Non-financials group with a continued increase of 50.4% YoY, while Financials posted lower growth (34.1%) despite strong gains from both Securities and Insurance companies during the quarter, according to FiinGroup.

According to FiinGroup, by sector, growth was less positive in core industries but surged in several smaller ones.

The main contributors to high earnings growth were financial gains (asset disposals, FX gains, provision reversals) rather than core business performance.

Specifically, core profit rose only 16.7% YoY, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of deceleration since the peak in Q2/2024. Financial income was recorded at several leading enterprises such as VIC, VCG, GEE, GEX, VGI and MWG.

In Q3/2025, core profit of large-cap companies (VN30) – which have delivered superior stock price performance versus VN-INDEX – declined slightly (-2.4% YoY), due to weaker results in key sectors such as Banking and Real Estate.

In contrast, core profit of mid-cap (VNMID) and small-cap (VNSML) companies surged strongly, rising 62.4% and 44.2% YoY respectively in Q3/2025, driven by recovery in many industries including Retail, Steel, Construction, Building Materials, Seafood, Oil & Gas Exploration, and Fertilizers.

However, VNMID and VNSML together account for less than 30% of core profit on HOSE; thus, their impact on overall market growth remains limited.

According to the Data Digest #26 report on Q3/2025 Results by FiinGroup’s Financial Information Services Data Analytics team, the Growth group saw momentum from both core operations and financial income. Notable performers include Oil & Gas (PVS, PVD, TOS), Telecommunications (VGI), Materials & Construction (VCG, SJG, BMP, PC1, CTD).

Insurance (BVH, PVI, MIG) increased sharply from a low base due to last year's impact from Typhoon Yagi. However, compensation risks following storms after September have yet to be reflected in Q3 results, meaning profit growth may slow in Q4/2025.

Retailers (MWG, FRT) grew thanks to operational efficiency improvements and recovering ICT demand.

In Chemicals, DGC’s profit recovery remained slow, while Rubber (DPR), Plastics (AAA), and Fertilizers (DCM, DPM, DDV) saw notable growth.

In the Recovery group, Personal Goods (PNJ) stood out with significantly improved margins driven by rising gold prices. In Industrials & Services, strong growth was seen in Airports (ACV), Waterway Transport, and Electronics & Electrical Equipment (GEX, GEE).

In the Slowing-down group, Food & Beverage showed sharp internal divergence: declines in Dairy and Sugar; slowdown in Livestock (HAG, DBC) and Food; but recovery in Seafood and Beer. 

In Utilities, profit slowed in Electricity and remained flat in Gas Distribution (GAS).

In the Decline group, Real Estate profit unexpectedly reversed downward after several quarters of growth, as financial income could not offset a sharp decrease in revenue from project handovers.

Real Estate and Banking Show the Lowest Plan Completion Rates

As of 9M2025, most sectors had completed over 85% of their annual profit targets, indicating results are broadly tracking plans.

Some industries such as Media, Telecommunications, Oil & Gas, and Chemicals significantly exceeded their plans due to low bases last year and improved margins.

In contrast, Banking and Real Estate remained the two sectors with the lowest completion rates, at around 74.6% and 52.5% respectively.

Retail, Insurance, Utilities, and Construction & Materials maintained steady growth, providing a basis to meet or exceed annual profit targets in the final quarter.

Profit after tax of Non-financials leveled off in Q3/2025 as EBIT margin narrowed (-0.6 percentage points YoY) after five consecutive quarters of improvement, while revenue grew only slightly (8.6% YoY).

Core profit of Non-financials fell slightly (-0.2% YoY) in Q3/2025, mainly due to the impact of Real Estate, significantly influenced by the Vingroup group (VIC, VHM, VEF).

Excluding Real Estate, core profit of the remaining Non-financial sectors still increased 29% YoY, thanks to broad-based recovery in Construction, Steel, Building Materials, Industrials & Services, consumer-related sectors (Retail, Seafood, Personal Goods), Oil & Gas, Fertilizers, and Mining.

Seven out of 16 sectors reported a surge in core profit in Q3, particularly Oil & Gas, Retail, Basic Resources, and Chemicals, while core profit was divergent in Food & Beverage (declines in Dairy, Sugar; slowdown in Livestock (HAG, DBC) and Food; recovery in Seafood, Beer).

Meanwhile, recovery in core profit slowed in Telecommunications, Industrials & Services, and Utilities, and declined in Real Estate and Travel & Leisure.

Net profit of the Real Estate sector fell -22.6% YoY in Q3/2025, mainly due to large residential developers (VHM, NVL) reporting low handover revenue, while financial income was insufficient to offset losses in core operations.

Conversely, mid-range residential developers such as KDH, NLG, DIG recorded strong profit growth, reflecting stable demand in the mid-tier segment.

Industrial Real Estate (GVR, BCM, KBC, IDC) and Retail Real Estate (VRE) continued to recover strongly, helping soften the overall negative picture for the sector in Q3.

Oil & Gas rebounded widely in Q3/2025, mainly due to a low base and recovery across the exploration–services chain.

PVS and PVD delivered standout results thanks to abundant workloads and improving rig rental rates, while BSR benefited from recovering crack spreads and improved margins.

However, the sector’s outlook is more cautious, as oil prices are unlikely to rise strongly and profit momentum may slow as the low-base effect fades. For TOS, surging profits came primarily from the Oil & Gas Services segment. 

POW and NT2 led the sector thanks to lower gas input prices and recovering power generation output, while hydropower (VSH) benefited from favorable hydrological conditions.

Meanwhile, coal-fired power plants (QTP, HND) saw profit decline sharply due to lower electricity selling prices. 

The Textile & Garment sector recorded slower profit growth in Q3/2025 after a strong rebound in H1, as the rush of orders to avoid US countermeasures subsided, leading to weaker new orders and export momentum.

Seafood net profit surged 171% YoY, mainly due to a low base and widening margins rather than expanding volumes.

Most seafood companies recorded low or declining revenue, except ANV, which benefited from diversified export markets (South America, Thailand, domestic) and new tilapia export products, enabling a stronger recovery versus pangasius exporters reliant on the US.

The sector is entering a profit recovery cycle, with EBIT margin expanding from the bottom and revenue showing signs of improvement.

Retail net profit rose 82.8% YoY in Q3/2025, supported by revenue growth of 16% YoY and continued EBIT margin expansion, reflecting better quality of growth. 

Key contributors included MWG (121.4% YoY) after restructuring Mobile World & Dien May Xanh, FRT (60.7% YoY) thanks to Long Chau pharmacy expansion, and DGW (39.2% YoY) due to higher contribution from Office Equipment.

Personal Goods surged thanks to significant EBIT margin expansion despite moderate revenue growth, mainly driven by PNJ, which benefited from low input costs and jewelry recycling, improving margins sharply. 

Banking sector profit rose 24.9% YoY in Q3/2025 to the highest level in seven quarters, driven by strong non-interest income (notably at VPB, CTG, SHB) and lower provisioning costs (CTG, STB, BVB, OCB). However, profit softened from the Q2 peak (-1.6% QoQ).