Residential property sector: Earnings expected to recover

According to the Ministry of Construction, in 9M25, property transaction volume in the Vietnam real estate market slightly increased 1% yoy. Meanwhile, average primary selling prices showed significant volatility in the two key markets, rising 33% yoy in Hanoi and 36% yoy in Ho Chi Minh City. This partly indicates that strong housing demand has been constrained by high selling prices. 3Q25 also marked the first quarter following the provincial merger, which may have triggered localized land price surges in certain areas.

MBS notes that such price increases are sustainable only when supported by real infrastructure and economic development. During 3Q25, housing supply continued to rise in both major markets as several large projects were launched, with a trend of shifting further from city centers. For property developers, a series of legal reforms have been introduced to support businesses and increase supply, notably: expanding permitted land use for projects (Resolution 171/2024/QH15), piloting special mechanisms for social housing development (Resolution 201/2025/QH15), and adjusting master plans in several sub-zones.

In 3Q25, numerous new residential projects were launched with positive booking activity, supported by strong sales incentive programs despite the typically weaker seasonal demand during the “ghost month”. In Hanoi, excluding VHM, most new launches came from unlisted developers, such as Sun Feliza Suites (Sun Group), The Matrix Premium (MIK Group), and Noble Crystal (Sunshine Group). In HCM City, notable projects introduced included The Opus One - Vinhomes Grand Park (VHM), The Privé (DXG), Gladia (KDH), The Gió Riverside (AGG), and Lumier Midtown (Masterise).

In neighboring provinces, key launches included the Canaria subdivision - Izumi City project (Đồng Nai) and Solaria Rise - Southgate project (former Long An) developed by NLG. Booking volumes were strong at several developers under MBS’s coverage, notably DXG and KDH.

In 3Q2025, sales activities at listed real estate developers were generally positive; however, revenue recognition remained primarily driven by the handover of units from existing projects. Additionally, during the quarter, several project equity transfer transactions were completed or expected to take place, generating one-off financial gains for developers. Notable examples include NLG’s completed divestment of a 15.1% stake in Izumi City project and PDR’s planned stake transfer in Thuận An 1 project (pending completion at the time of this report).

MBS estimates that the aggregate net profit of the listed real estate companies under its coverage grew 68.7% yoy in 3Q25, supported by a recovery from last year’s low base and boosted by extraordinary financial income. New project launches during the quarter are expected to start contributing to earnings from 4Q2025 onward.