Stock Market Daily Forecast: A pullback expected to find equilibrium

In yesterday morning's session, after opening slightly higher, the VN-Index reversed sharply due to strong selling pressure on some stocks. However, with support from HPG, SSI, VNM, and some other blue-chip stocks, the decline was mitigated, and liquidity remained similar to the previous session.

In the afternoon trading session, increased selling pressure at the beginning caused the VN-Index to widen its decline, returning to the morning's low. However, increased buying at the bottom helped the VN-Index recover. Just when some investors were anticipating a spectacular reversal, a sudden surge in selling pressure, especially in some blue-chip stocks and the three state-owned bank stocks, caused the VN-Index to plummet again, breaking through the morning's low and threatening the 1,780-point mark—the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, also the MA50 line.

At this support level, strong buying pressure entered the market, halting the decline and recovering more than 10 points. Despite this, the VN-Index closed lower than yesterday morning’s session, even though green dominated the electronic board, mainly due to pressure from blue-chip stocks, especially the Vingroup’s stocks, with VIC falling back to its floor price.

At the close of trading, the VN-Index fell 21.97 points (-1.21%) to 1,791.43 points, with 167 gainers and 155 losers. Total trading volume reached 1,053.9 million units, valued at VND 33,925.5 billion, a slight increase compared to yesterday's session. Of this, block trades contributed 84 million units, valued at VND 2,788 billion.

In the Vingroup’s stocks, besides VIC hitting its lower limit at VND 121,600/share, VHM also fell 6.17% to VND 91,300/share. Meanwhile, bargain hunting helped VPL and VRE significantly curb their declines, with VPL closing down only 1.38% at VND 85,500/share and VRE down 0.53% at VND 28,250/share.

Among banking stocks, BID saw the sharpest decline, falling over 2% to VND 53,000/share, followed by VCB, which dropped 1.39% to VND 70,800/share. TCB, OCB, CTG, ACB, NAB, VIB, and EIB experienced only slight decreases. HDB, SSB, MSB, and SHB remained unchanged. Conversely, LPB, TPB, and STB rose by over 1%; VPB and MBB saw slight increases.

Among securities companies, SSI slowed its upward momentum, rising only 2.1% to VND 31,550/share, while TVS took the lead with a 3.45% increase to VND 15,000/share. VPX rose 1.63% to VND 28,000/share; DSE, CTS, VCI, FTS, and BSI increased by more than 1%; the remaining stocks saw slight increases. Conversely, four stocks experienced slight declines: VDS and VCK fell by more than 1%; ORS and VIX decreased by around 0.5%.

In the steel sector, besides HPG surging 5.79% to VND 28,300/share, TLH also rose 4.63% to VND 5,200/share, while HSG and NKG increased by more than 4%.

The oil and gas sector remained stagnant around the reference price, with PVD and BSR rising slightly by over 1% and over 0.6% respectively; PLX remained unchanged, while GAS fell by over 1%.

In terms of liquidity, HPG was the most actively traded stock on the exchange, significantly outperforming the rest with 145.4 million units, followed by another bank stock, SHB, with 47 million units. SSI came in third with 32.4 million units, and VIX in fourth with 29.6 million units. Additionally, two other stocks traded over 25 million units: POW (over 27 million) and MBB (over 25 million).

Meanwhile, the HNX index fluctuated slightly around the reference price and closed with a slight gain.

The VN-Index closed lower at 1,790 points due to selling pressure from some stocks. On the daily chart, the VN-Index is approaching the thick Ichimoku cloud, while the Kijun indicator is trending upwards, and the ADX is weakening. Therefore, it can be concluded that the VN-Index is still in a medium-term uptrend, and a pullback to find equilibrium around 1,700-1,780 points is necessary for the market to return to a longer-term uptrend.

On the hourly chart, the -DI line is above 25, but there is no consensus with the ADX line. The RSI indicator is forming a positive divergence, reducing the risk of a sharp decline in the VN-Index. There is a high probability that the VN-Index will return to the 1,835-1,850 points in the coming sessions.

The Vingroup’s stocks continued to be a negative factor affecting the market during the session. Despite the decline, the market remained generally stable with fairly active cash flows. In the current context, VCBS recommended that investors take advantage of opportunities to find stocks that are consolidating strong support levels and showing increased liquidity to actively buy and gradually disburse funds during fluctuations in the following sessions. Notable sectors are banking, retail, securities.