Stock Market Weekly Forecast: Beware of selling pressure at high price

The VN-Index had a positive trading week, setting a new peak exceeding 1,900 points in the third trading session (January 13th) thanks to strong demand from large-cap stocks such as VCB, BID, and GAS.

At the opening of last week's trading session, the market saw a strong tug-of-war between buyers and sellers around the 1,870 point mark. In the following trading session, active buying started in the banking and securities sectors and then spread to many other sectors, increasing liquidity and driving the overall index up sharply.

However, in subsequent trading sessions, the VN-Index faced downward pressure due to increased profit-taking at higher levels, causing the overall index to quickly lose the 1,900-point mark. Foreign investors sold net in the first four trading sessions of the week, with a total value of VND 1,003 billion, an increase of over VND 820 billion compared to the same period the previous week.

In the morning's trading session, the VN-Index opened up 11 points thanks to positive demand from large-cap stocks in the Vingroup stocks and some individual stocks such as FPT, MWG, and PNJ. However, the gains were quickly narrowed under increased profit-taking pressure in the banking sector. The highlight of this trading session was the strong increase from oil and gas stocks (BSR, PVS, PVD), information technology (FPT), and retail (FRT, PNJ, MWG).

At the end of the morning session, the VN-Index increased by 30.54 points. Entering the afternoon trading session, the VN-Index gradually narrowed its gains and lost the 1,900-point mark as the upward momentum of the banking sector weakened. In the last 30 minutes and during the ATC session, profit-taking pressure increased in some large-cap stocks such as HPG, VCB, and BID, causing the VN-Index to fall to 1,880 points. Notably, foreign investors heavily sold off shares today with a total value of over VND 1126.48 billion, focusing on selling PNJ, VIX, and VRE.

At the close of last week's session, the VN-Index closed at 1,879.13 points, up 14.33 points, equivalent to 0.77%. For the week, the VN-Index increased by 11.23 points (0.60%) compared to the previous week.

On the daily chart, both the MACD and RSI indicators are trending upwards, showing that the market's upward momentum remains significant. Simultaneously, the CMF indicator remains sideways above 0, indicating continued active buying. However, the VN-Index's recent movements still lean towards accumulation to establish a new price base to absorb some of the supply pressure at higher levels.

On the hourly chart, the VN-Index continues to test support around the MA20 line, accompanied by volatility. If the upward trend continues in the coming sessions, the immediate target for the VN-Index will be the previous peak around 1,920 points.

The VN-Index closed the trading week above 1,880 and slightly higher than the previous week, showing the market's upward momentum despite strong selling pressure at higher levels, especially after the VN-Index surpassed 1,900 points and created a new peak.

Therefore, VCBS recommends that investors maintain their holdings of stocks that are in a stable upward trend and have not yet seen strong selling pressure. At the same time, they should select stocks that have successfully broken through resistance or tested convincing support with the support of active buying liquidity to disburse funds for short-term trading. Some sectors to consider in the coming sessions are banking, consumer goods, and securities.