Stock Market Weekly Forecast: Prioritizing risk management

VN-Index had a volatile trading week when the opening session of the last week was under strong downward pressure and quickly recovered to around 1,675 in the following session thanks to good structuring force from a number of large-cap stocks in the Vingroup group, consumer, real estate and public investment sectors.

In the following sessions, cash flow last week continued to be differentiated between sectors when selling pressure mainly came from large-cap stocks in the securities, banking and Vingroup sectors, causing the general index to continue to be under downward pressure.

On the contrary, cash flow was more active in the group of small and medium-cap stocks, especially in groups of stocks that have not had a strong increase in recent times such as rubber and oil and gas.

Foreign investors last week were net sellers with a total value in the first 4 trading sessions of the week reaching 3,080.85 billion VND, down 955.29 billion VND compared to the same period last week.

In the last trading session of the week, the market opened under overwhelming selling pressure and retreated to the 1,650 zone. The correction in banking stocks and Vingroup was the main negative point that put pressure on the index. On the contrary, some midcap groups such as oil and gas and public investment recorded notable participation of cash flow. Entering the afternoon trading session, the general index generally hovered around the 1660 mark thanks to increased demand in Vingroup stocks.

In the last 15 minutes of the trading session, strong selling pressure increased sharply with the focus continuing to be on the Vingroup group (VIC, VHM, VRE) and the banking group all in red, thereby causing the general index to be under strong downward pressure. Foreign investors continued to net sell more than VND 450.77 billion in today's trading session, focusing on selling VIC, VHM and CTG.

At the end of the session, VN-Index closed at 1,639.65 points, down 29.92 points, equivalent to 1.79%. At the end of the week, VN-Index decreased by 43.53 points (-2.59%) compared to the previous week.

VN-Index ended the last trading session of the week with a red candle, along with a slight increase in liquidity, showing that the selling side is still dominating the market.

On the daily chart, the MACD and RSI indicators are continuing to point down, so there is no sign of a reversal in the downtrend, although the VN-Index has retreated to near the short-term support around the nearest old bottom, equivalent to 1,630 points. In addition, the ADX indicator remains below 25, while the -DI line remains above this threshold, somewhat reinforcing the above assessment.

On the hourly chart, the MACD and RSI indicators are continuing to point down, so there is a high possibility that the market will continue to correct in the next trading session. The VN-Index is expected to have a technical recovery during the session around 1,630, which coincides with the lower boundary of the Bollinger Band.

The VN-Index closed the week with a strong decline of nearly 30 points. The widespread selling pressure shows that cautious sentiment is prevailing, and the market may need more time to absorb the current supply. In the context of strong market volatility, VCBS recommended investors to prioritize risk management, specifically continue to closely monitor market developments to react promptly, and review portfolios and resolutely restructure, especially for positions that have reached the stop-loss threshold. Preserving purchasing power and maintaining a stable mentality in the current context will help investors better take advantage of market recoveries to restructure portfolios and seek short-term profits.