Stock Market Weekly Forecast: Restructuring portfolios via intraday rallies

VN-Index experienced one of the most volatile weeks in its history, plunging 95 points at the start of the week as most stocks hit their lower limits. Although the stock market attempted to recover in later sessions, sectoral and intra-sector divergence became increasingly pronounced. Large-cap stocks such as VIC, LPB, FPT, and FRT helped support the VN-Index, keeping it above the 1,620-point support level and bringing it back near the 1,700 threshold.

On the final trading day of the week, the VN-Index fluctuated within a 30-point range, sparking panic among investors. Banking, securities, and real estate sectors continued to face heavy selling pressure. Trading liquidity rose 30% compared to the previous session but remained low, under VND 30 trillion per session, with the market skewed toward sellers as 190 stocks declined. The VN-Index closed in the red, down 3.88 points (0.23%), while foreign investors continued their net selling of over VND 2.1 trillion, mainly offloading SSI and MBB.

For the last week, the VN-Index closed at 1,683.18, down 48.01 points, equivalent to a 2.77% decline.

The VN-Index had a week of gradual recovery efforts following the record 95-point drop earlier in the week. Although capital inflows have returned and shown divergence across sectors such as real estate, retail, and oil & gas, financial sectors including banking and securities continued to decline.

On the 1-hour (1H) timeframe, the VN-Index is showing narrowing volatility, with both MACD and RSI indicators aligning in an upward direction, suggesting that the short-term recovery momentum may continue.

On the daily (1D) timeframe, following a sharp bearish marubozu candle at the start of the week, the VN-Index has formed three consecutive doji candles, indicating a strong tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. The VN-Index has not yet confirmed a complete bottom formation, and continues to move within the support level of 1,660, aiming toward the 1,700-point area.

SHS believes that the VN-Index will continue to recover and retest 1,700 points after recovering well at the support zone of 1,620-1,630 points, the lowest price zone in September 2025. The next strong resistance is 1,730 points, the highest price on October 20, 2025. Under the influence of leading stocks, VN30 and VN-Index could accumulate after a period of uptrend. The pressure of high-priced supply will increase as the VN-Index is recovering to 1,700 points with many highly speculative stocks.

VCBS recommended that investors closely monitor market movements in the upcoming sessions and take advantage of intraday rallies to restructure portfolios by eliminating weak stocks that have broken their uptrend, and gradually shifting allocations toward stocks that have shown strong recovery momentum during the past week.