Stock Market Weekly Forecast: VN-Index may keep on the upswing

In the first trading week of 2026 (January 5-9), the VN-Index continued its upward trend from the last week of 2025, recording an increase of over 80 points and setting a new high at 1,888.33. Positive movement in large-cap stocks, especially state-owned enterprises such as VCB, CTG, BID, GAS, POW, and VTP, led the VN-Index to conquer new high points. Conversely, the Vingroup’s stocks showed signs of weakening after a prolonged upward trend.

Liquidity improved during the week and surpassed the 20-week average, indicating that trading is gradually becoming more active again in the market. Foreign investors mainly bought net during the week, focusing on MBB, VPB, and HPG.

The VN-Index opened the final trading session of the week on January 9th with a slight gain. After reaching its highest point of the morning session at 1,872, the VN-Index's upward momentum slowed, fluctuating around 1,865 points until the end of the morning session. Market divergence was the main trend, with 191 stocks in the red and 117 in the green.

Although selling pressure prevailed, positive movements in the banking sector (BID, VCB, and CTG increased by 2-5%) and Viettel (VTP and CTR hit the ceiling price) helped the VN-Index maintain balance.

In the afternoon session, the VN-Index continued to fluctuate similarly to the morning, with a 20-point range above the reference level. Profit-taking pressure did not subside, however, efforts in the blue-chip group, with CTG, VCB, and BID increasing by 6-7%, along with impressive buying in the rubber and oil & gas sectors, helped the VN-Index close the session up more than 12 points.

At the close of trading, the VN-Index closed at 1,867.9, up 12.34 points, or 0.67%. For the week, the VN-Index increased by 83.41 points (4.67%) compared to the previous week.

The VN-Index closed the week with a Spinning Top candlestick, indicating a tug-of-war around the new high of 1,850-1,880. On the daily chart, the DI line is anchored above 25, however, the ADX line is below this level, suggesting that the VN-Index's upward momentum is slowing down with a tug-of-war as selling pressure emerges.

The VN-Index is closely following the upper boundary of the upward-sloping Bollinger Bands, and the RSI and MACD indicators have not yet shown clear signs of a peak, so the VN-Index will continue its upward trend next week. However, attention should be paid to wide-range tug-of-war movements, as these indicators are all in high territory.

On the hourly chart, the CMF indicator is trending downwards, indicating increased selling pressure in the market. The VN-Index appears to be moving sideways around the 1,855-1,880 range, and the MACD indicator is gradually decreasing, so it is highly likely that the VN-Index will continue to fluctuate around the aforementioned area to test supply and demand in the next sessions.

The VN-Index experienced an impressive first week of the year with three consecutive sessions reaching new highs. The main driving force came from large-cap stocks, with strong cash inflows into these stocks, especially in the last sessions of the week.

On the other hand, the upward momentum also spread to some mid-cap sectors in the last two sessions of the week, but at the same time, the market also showed clear divergence as quite a few stocks did not follow the VN-Index's upward trend or even continued to search for bottoms. Therefore, VCBS recommends that investors maintain their holdings in stocks that are experiencing strong upward momentum while also seeking new investment opportunities in sectors/stocks with positive growth expectations in 2026 and gradually disburse funds during index fluctuations in subsequent trading sessions.