Although gaining strong growth in export turnover in the first seven months of this year, Vietnam still faces many challenges to maintain the high growth in the export until this year end.
With the gradual recovery of the world market and increase of export orders, trade activities in the first seven months achieved positive results.
The total trade turnover in July exceeded 70 billion USD for the first time, of which exports reached a record of over 36 billion USD, marking the month with the highest export value ever.
In the first seven months, export turnover reached 266.9 billion USD, up 15.7% over the same period last year. Import turnover stood at 212.9 billion USD, up 18.5%.
During those months, there were 10 import items with a value exceeding 5 billion USD, including electronics, computers and components, common metals, phones and components, machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts.
According to the forecast of MB Securities Joint Stock Company (MBS), exports will grow by 11 % - 12 % in 2024, with a trade surplus of 12-14 billion USD.
This growth is based on the World Bank's forecasts on the global trade in goods and services increasing by 2.5% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025. Positive signs of FDI in Vietnam are expected to play an important role in trade activities.
In addition, recent reforms in trade and customs policies have improved the efficiency of import-export management, simplified administrative processes and reduced costs and time for businesses.
Petrovietnam Securities Incorporated (PSI) also noted that consumer confidence is showing signs of recovery. The consumer confidence index on economic conditions in key markets, such as the EU and UK, also recorded slight recovery,
In addition, the number of new orders from the US, Vietnam's key export market, increased, showing more optimism about this market's demand in the future.
Therefore, PSI expects purchasing power in major export markets to recover more strongly in the second half of 2024.
Although the US has not recognised Vietnam as a market economy, PSI still maintains a positive view on Vietnam's export enterprises this year because the US is still Vietnam's largest export market, reported the Doanh nghiep Vietnam (Vietnam businesses) magazine.
Many challenges
However, MBS believed that Vietnam's export growth until this year end will face many challenges, such as a spike in shipping costs due to geopolitical conflicts; and increasing competition from rival exporting countries such as China, Indonesia and Thailand.
Other challenges are negative impacts from the US's prolonged high interest rates on Vietnam's partner countries, leading to a decline in market demand.
Moreover, Vietnam's economy is highly open, so it also is greatly exposed to global economic developments. This brings difficulties for industries with large export turnover such as textiles, wood and electronics.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT), although the export market has seen signs of recovery, the export recovery of products is still uneven and unstable.
Vietnam's key export products to such major markets as the EU and the US are facing pressures from trade defence investigations, origin fraud and technical barriers related to the environment, sustainable development and green transformation.
The world economic situation still faces many difficulties and challenges, while the slow recovery of global trade, consumption and investment has affected the domestic economy.
Industrial enterprises, especially export ones, continue to face difficulties in expanding and diversifying markets due to high input material costs and compliance costs, especially with new regulations and standards. Lending interest rates are gradually decreasing, but they are still at a high level.
Therefore, the General Statistics Office recommended synchronously and effectively implementing some groups of solutions. Of which, it is necessary to continue to popularise incentives in free trade agreements (FTAs) and maximise market opening opportunities, boost exports and improve the efficiency of exporting Vietnamese goods to markets that have signed FTAs with Vietnam.
The country should continue to innovate trade promotion activities, focusing on digital transformation programmes in the trade promotion activities and connecting supply and demand both home and abroad.
At the same time, it is necessary to improve efficiency in customs clearance for import and export goods at border gates between Vietnam and other countries and promote transition to official exports.
Trade surplus growth in 2025
The industry and trade sector strives to maintain a trade surplus of 15 billion USD in 2025 and gain a growth of 6% in export revenue turnover compared to 2024.
To reach this goal, the MoIT will continue to promote breakthrough strategies and restructure sectors and fields to improve productivity, quality, efficiency and competitiveness.
The ministry will also focus on institutional reform and development of a favourable business environment to support enterprises in restoring production and business, and implementing important projects.
At the same time, negotiation about new FTAs and upgrading of existing ones will be carried out selectively to take full incentives from signed FTAs, aiming at expanding import and export markets and diversifying partners and goods suppliers and minimising dependence on certain markets.
The ministry will also implement preventive measures, improve trade defense capacity and early warning and resolve international trade and investment disputes to protect the legitimate rights of domestic manufacturing industries as well as businesses and people.
It will strongly develop the domestic market and Vietnamese brands, and promote e-commerce.
In addition, trade promotion conferences with Vietnam trade offices abroad will be held regularly with updates on foreign markets and new regulations and standards, making recommendations to localities, business associations and businesses to adjust production plans and find suitable orders.
In particular, the ministry will accelerate the negotiation of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between Vietnam and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and deploy various trade promotion programmes in both direct and online forms, to take all opportunities from the implemented FTAs./.
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