The BoJ almost certainly won’t hike rates again this week, but this need not necessarily rule out another painful carry-trade unwind.
The US dollar will presumably be sensitive to the size of the Fed rate cut this week but many analyst said investors should not overplay the role of US monetary policy...
Last week’s US payroll data was somewhat mixed but, on balance, seemed to tip the debate about 25-bps or 50-bps, for the Fed’s first rate cut on September 18th towards...
While attention is undoubtedly on the prospect for the first rate cut from the Fed later this month, the ECB could deliver its second rate cut in the cycle on Thursday.
Recessionary fears continue to stalk the US and they could step up another gear when payroll data are weaker than expected.
Modest and steady rate cuts from G10 central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve (FED), are likely to keep riskier assets like equities and emerging markets well...
As a relative price, currencies move most when there is divergence between countries, not convergence.
It finally looks as if the Fed will come to the rate-cut party currently being enjoyed by most developed nations. It is only the Bank of Japan that is acting as the...
The US is outstripping its G10 peers when it comes to productivity growth.
Financial markets will be watching out for FED Chair Powell’s speech to the annual Kansas Fed Jackson Hole conference on Friday.
As central banks rev up their monetary policy easing cycles, thoughts will undoubtedly turn to the extent of rate cuts that we are likely to see over the cycle.
Many financial asset prices have recovered after the battering late last week and early this week. Will the slump in things like stocks and dollar/yen continue to fade...
Euro/US dollar has hardly left the extremely narrow 1.05-1.10 range since early 2023.
The FX market focuses heavily on monetary policy and interest rate differentials.
The USD/VND currency is expected to stabilize again, with a 3.5% year-to-date increase equivalent to VND25,120/USD.
As we count down to the July 31st FOMC meeting, there seem to be increasing calls for the Fed to do something.
A second Trump term would lead to elevated policy uncertainty, while sticky global inflation and China’s uneven economic recovery remain as key risks too.
Politics and monetary policy continue to dominate FX market sentiment and this is unlikely to change in the short-term.
For much of this year the market has assumed that FED would be amongst the most cautious of the central banks when cutting rates. But just recently the momentum has...
Federal Reserve officials have said many times that they need to be confident that inflation is sustainably moving towards the 2% target in order to ease policy.
The pressure on VND may ease up, leading VND/USD rates to fluctuate between 25,300 and 25,700 by the second half of 2024.
There is now a greater than 90% possibility that the Fed will lower interest rates next September. This might continue to boost gold prices next week.
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